NT, TAS, SA, WA and QLD have all closed their borders.
NT and TAS really look like they’re going to be able to contain this. WA and SA are some chance, still having no cases of unknown origin, although that block of “under investigation” cases is ominous. NSW is headed bad places and the virus looks beyond containment in VIC and QLD.
Some of the government responses in Australia came too late, but at least our testing is on point. My state has tested 70% more people per capita than South Korea.
There is a decent chance 80%+ of working age people who get Covid wouldn’t even be sick enough to miss work, if they showed symptoms at all.
500k dead in New York? They have a population of 20 million. You really think its going to kill 2.5% of the entire population of the state if nothing was done?
Hospitals getting overrun is obviously a huge problem but I feel like theres a lot of hyperbole being used to describe the potential effects of a do nothing approach.
We are definitely drawing live to that many dying in NY if everyone went back to their normal routines. The only thing preventing that from happening right now are the lockdowns which Trump is going to try and pressure states to end.
The case fatality rate in Italy now is 9%. Cuomo suggested it was possible 40-80% of the city could get it. 2.5% of the population dead is at the upper end of possibilities, but it is possible, if the virus were left to spread unchecked.
My impression is that people in the Seattle area are generally pretty fit. Seems like that + not insane population density could be a big factor in keeping it not turning out like Italy.
Seattle is March is similar temps to Lombardy in Feb. But maybe the virus doesn’t like wet very much. I’ve read elsewhere that viruses like cold and dry.
Hospitals getting overrun increased the case fatality rate massively. Covid patients who need a ventilator really truly need that ventilator. They are 100% dead without it whether they are 30yo or 90yo.
Fine, not 500k, 160k. Better? 20 million times 80 percent infected times 1 percent mortality rate. But add on a whole bunch more for people who died of all kinds of treatable injuries and illnesses that couldn’t get help because the healthcare industry collapsed. I mean I’m not pulling these numbers out of my ass here, that study out of Imperial College from the UK predicted 80 percent of the population infected and 2.2 million dead in the US if no actions were taken. New York makes up 6 percent of the US population.
Just remember, Jimmy Carter got a bump up to 58% at the start of the Iran hostage crisis. The death tolls need to be hammered like a drum beat, causing his numbers to go down.
My girlfriend is a pharmacist currently in residency in an emergency room. Her hospital has started using chloroquine on a few patients. Echoing mreed’s observations though they’re short on supply, in part thanks to doctors prescribing it for themselves. In one case a 90 day supply was given for a dog.
