SARS-CoV-2: Electric Superflu

Australia update:

National cases just ticked over the 1,000 mark. The largest outbreak is in NSW, where there are 436 cases. Of those cases, 74 are of unknown origin. There have been around 47,000 tests conducted in the state.

As of March 20, Australia had conducted 113,615 tests nationwide, more than in the entire United States. This puts us in a nice position in terms of cases uncovered per test:

That dot right next to us is Canada, who have about 50% more population. So our government is doing OK. I’m still not sure this will be enough to avoid further shutdowns.

Mexico looking really not great on that chart.

Kyrgyzstan definitely not being completely honest with us.

Taking the daily 4pm national data chart from way up above.

Using the last few days since we got to around 100 deaths. Going back early drops the R^2. Too much noise early on.

Exp=.303
Deaths per day go up about 1.35x
Deaths per day about 0.26 x total deaths

Monday 535 total 140/day
Friday 979 total 256/day
3/30 4442 total 1159/day

That puts out to a two full weeks for the whole country doing some kind of isolation.

Hopefully thats where we peak. Those darn gen-Z might foul it up.

I’ll update every couple of days. I’m not bothering to format pretty so no google share for now.

Steeper than Italy…

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i think that number just seems unbelievable, i can’t really imagine it.

Mexico almost on the identity line. 100 tests, 100 cases.

Does he work for general atomic?

On the “good side” probably only Australia and Taiwan with credibility.

It was like that when I was in training with AIDS. I did a 3 month IM rotation and my team pronounced a patient pretty much every other day. Average age was about 25-30 - nothing to do, nothing helped. Then AZT came up and things started improving, and once the “backlog” of people that had completely lost their lymphocytes died, census went way down.

Sucked, a lot.

MM MD

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In Southern California it seems like almost all businesses are claiming they’re essential. Everything is still busy. Smoke shop still open, my uncles warehouse is still open.

Seems like a lot of businesses are just going to continue to operate and fight a legal battle with CA or something?

Anyways yeah this is gonna be fucking horrible.

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I see some of you guys don’t like going to the store. I went once this week and hated it. I have switched over to having everything delivered. I had already been getting butcherbox for my meat. Now I’m using instacart for snacks and beverages and another service that just delivers veggies. Seems safer to me at this point.

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I normally get delivery from kroger who uses Instacart for their deliveries but the last week plus they have a lot of stuff they will not deliver or even allow for pick up. In store purchase only.

I hate shopping so I prefer to do it online but has been tough for me recently.

https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1232820314033266688
https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1241190120683954182

Pretty close.

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Looking at cases and deaths in the US since March 1, it’s been a consistent 34% increase each day. At that rate we’ll have half a million confirmed cases by the end of the month, and half a million dead by the middle of April.

Maybe. But we had a BRUTAL flu season this last winter - to the point that a lot of ER’s stopped testing if the patient was symptomatic for more that 2 days (because antivirals then don’t work) and if you’re not hypoxic we wouldn’t do a cxr - wasn’t for cost reasons, but we were running out of tests AND if the assumption was that they were a flu patient, you would have to give them the offer of paying $600 or so to find out we couldn’t do anything anyway. So I’d be entirely prepared to believe that a fair amount of “flu” could have been Covid.

MM MD

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Pretty good detailing of all our missteps getting testing in the US and how it is finally ramping up.

Even though we passed 100k tests, we would need to be at about 6 million to be on par, per capita, with South Korea.

I’m still in denial in about how things are going to look in two weeks, even though I know what is coming.

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Not sure if joking, but I’m pretty sure this isn’t the case.

In Long Beach. Absolutely no deliveries available on Instacart, Amazon, or from any stores.

“Otherwise you are assuming some small risk. Personally I’m taking that risk. We go for walks daily and trying to limit stores to 1-2 per week with gloves on. Will be fun to try and get the Mrs to wear some kind of homemade mask.”

Yeah, intuitively I agree - I’ve definitely adopted the “shop with a list on off peak hours and get the fuck out” theory of shopping, and doing take out, dumping the delivery packaging and reheating. The days of wandering into the grocery for a green pepper and two carrots are long gone.

So far, so good - and I’m 3/3 on the things you don’t want to be - immunosupresed, chronic condition and over 60. So far so good.

MM MD

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