If the NYT one is good, maybe we can get the elusive ‘clearly favored’
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Australian government just issued travel warning for USA, not for covid but for civil unrest.
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Looking through the csv from 538 and the last NYT poll from PA is worth like no weight at all since it’s so old at this point.
Who the fuck would travel to the USA anyway right now? Aren’t we on like an international blacklist due to Covid?
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Yeah seems bizarre I agree but they only just announced it today. I’m fairly sure people are still somehow able to travel to USA from here (have seen some people on social media in the USA who I know were in Aus at some point during covid).
it’s even more brazen in districts with large prison populations, but the principle is the same, they use the total number of residents for census and apportionment, but only a fraction is able to register to vote and actually be represented.
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Same. The ones I knew who made the move to a city are the ones who hate where they live and the people around them. So they find like-minded people in a city or at least near one.
People I know who moved from city to rural area are conservatives who left due to white flight.
Maybe I am the outlier then. I just know that NJ is expensive as shit so people move as soon as they get jobs.
Can’t agree enough and would add that the physical health problems that stress causes also overwhelmingly disadvantages the poor and minorities who obviously also are less able to take time off work or seek any treatment
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Nixon. Also in 1968 De Gualle had to flee the capital by helicopter and in 1969 he pushed for a referendum to sort of break up the French government and 46% of people voted to do it. He resigned after the referendum failed.
Also, to be fair, we did have a president for life from 1932-1945.
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depends what you consider the edge. franco in spain? pinochet in chile? solidarnost in poland toppled a soviet-backed party.
https://twitter.com/EmJayHix/status/1322758634414235649
https://twitter.com/Wizard_Predicts/status/1322758807198597120
loooool
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just find
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I think I’ll be completely calm, rational and mentally stable in such a scenario.
…
…
Did anyone buy that?
Me either.
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+7 in PA is pretty solid.
The fundamentals:
Unemployment: 8%, up from 4% earlier in the year
Stock Market: Dow Jones down 2.2k this year
Public Health: 1k deaths per day from a deadly virus, hospitals at the brink with no relief in sight.
Although he could mean “the fundamentals” of whites in PA and FL still being racist af, which is fair enough.
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Yeah I’m happy with +7 here, but the naked ballot issue scares me. That could be 5-10% of the mail-in vote, and something like 75% of Dems and only 25% of Republicans are voting by mail so we could be losing a big chunk of that +7 right there. Throw in the USPS, long lines in Philly, voter intimidation, and court battles and I need +7 to feel safe.