This is how bad we’re jonesing for polls.
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Ok but isn’t fat tails an assumption were all making? Or is it a function of correlated errors? Regardless, biden +17 should be as likely as trump +1, right?
We’re about 32 hours out from some significant results starting to come in. Hopefully about 36-40 hours away from the absolutely curb stomping landslide defeat and rebuke of Trump.
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Trump +100 with Geraldos
Biden +100 with Umas
What are more poals even going to tell us at this point? They’ll either be in line with what we have, or will be dismissed as an outlier.
Now it’s just the long wait for tomorrow evening, IMO.
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I suck at predictions, but I think he binks NC which will be a good omen for the rest of the night, even if we don’t have PA results.
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MOOD: We in the shit now, somebody’s gotta shovel it. Hercules Mulligan, I need no introduction, when you knock me down I get the FUCK back up again!
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A thread if you want to sweat the TX hearing…
https://twitter.com/ernestscheyder/status/1323311105104580609?s=21
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Initially not looking good for the GOP if one of the most partisan judges is being skeptical
https://twitter.com/ErnestScheyder/status/1323311106539085824
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How quickly is the ruling going to be made after arguments?
I work with a Donald and a Jason and if I had to pick two guys from the 200 I work with, those would be the two I would most suspect would vote Trump. Story checks out.
Gonna take a hit on my heart/post ratio here. Help me out?
https://twitter.com/Rasmussen_Poll/status/1323308918022569988
Oh they have a further caveat on their website:
Factor in those who haven’t made up their minds yet but are leaning toward one candidate or the other, and Trump gains another point to lead Biden 49% to 45%.
Boo. Late deciders shouldn’t get to vote. You heard me!
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It’s Rasmussen so it’s really like Trump +1 or Biden +1, somewhere in that range.
TOSS UP!
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Rasmussen can eat a dick. Next?
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I legitimately haven’t gotten one thing done yet in my first 2 hours at work.
Edit: Heart rate is still only 60. This is gonna be a long two days.
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Ohio looking way more competitive than expected.
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she cast her ballot via drive-through on Oct. 24 for Biden and Republican candidates down the ballot
I’d bet my mom did this same thing. Same for my cousin. And I’ve read a few accounts of similar. Could be a weird year where straight ticket doesn’t dominate as much as usual. Biden wins but no senate. So fun!
He’s a GWB appointee not Trump. Might be more old-school dogwhistle instead of whistle guy.
I’ve accomplished 2 hours of doomscrolling.
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