Maybe you’re right. Trump sort of is that guy for the GOP. I was always worried that the left voter base in this Country is more fickle and easily dissuaded from participating, while the GOP base was smaller but more robust. But Trump is hemorrhaging voters in the suburbs, and may suffer a historic defeat this week. My only thought is he went overboard on the xenophobia. He turned that shit up to 11. Maybe he could’ve taken it from a normal GOP level of 6 up to an 8 or 9 that would’ve rallied the white supremacists without alienating the more moderate voters who are a step left of Awval.
https://twitter.com/existentialfish/status/1323046517624737792
Clyburn obviously sucks but this is amazing
5 Likes
Nytimes Upshot (Nate Cohn’s) final polling averages and Electoral Votes:
- If the current polls are correct: Biden wins 351 electoral votes;
- If the polls are as wrong as they were in 2016: Biden wins 335 electoral votes;
- If the polls are as wrong as they were in 2012: Biden wins 412 electoral votes.
Please dear God don’t let there be an unusually large, systemic polling error.
10 Likes
At some point, guys with guns are going to have to deter the Trump-lovers with actual physical force. If they’re unable or unwilling to do so, its only a matter of time before democracy dies. Could be tomorrow, could be 20 years from now, but if terrorists continue to freeroll its gg.
4 Likes
Doesn’t matter, were only talked ng about this one bunch of polls.
This is a consequence of “fat tails,” wherein the model thinks Trump+2 is, yes, less likely than Biden+2, but not like 10x or more less likely, which is what intuition would lead a reasonable observer to believe.
2 Likes
Doesn’t matter. The more polls you aggregate the more the overall distribution approaches normal iirc.
You said “exactly”!
Also there could be a systemic error that all the polls are making, and no matter how many times they poll, their prediction will be different than the actual result. Simple for instance: a person without a phone will not be accessible to a live caller poll. It could be that 100% of them are voting for Donald Trump. Then the polls would be off in favor of Biden.
I’m not saying that’s going to happen, but the only way the math theory could apply exactly is if pollsters in aggregate reached a random sample of all voters, and the respondents all answered with their true and immutable candidate preference.
(@olink see my edit above)
1 Like
I think Miller is closer to being Himmler or Eichmann than Hitler.
5 Likes
Rasputin
2 Likes
Biden’s chances in PA have been improving with the recent pohls in the 538 average. He’s up to an 87/13 to win and his polling average is up to 5.1 percent. That 5.1 is significantly impacted by some really questionable trashy powls (like Trafalgar -2).
1 Like
This is true if you are sampling marbles from a jar and trying to estimate the ratio of varying colors. Political polls are more complex and have design factors built into them that can cause them to be much further off. Not to mention the actual electorate is changing as you sample it.
So sick that we’re sweating this despite a clear Biden lead becuase of the four most populous states in the country that make up a third of the entire country Biden is either up by 30 points or tied.
2 Likes
Rasputin had charisma and partied a lot.
3 Likes
Lmao. Temecula is reliably red. The voters they were disrupting were probably their own buddies. Fucking idiots.
1 Like
does that mean he is nailing Melania?
The best people.
Rasputin was like a harder to kill Jerry Falwell Jr.
4 Likes
I live on the corner of a busy intersection and am home all day. I’ve seen a half-dozen or so trucks full of wrap-around shades bros flying American flags - presumably on their way to one of these things.
I’m on the second story so I can see down into the bed of the truck. Yesterday 4 tattooed dude-bros in a souped up new truck came by - the Trump flag was taken down but visible in the bed. Guess they don’t want to shit where they live.
They are absolutely positively going to the hood in Fort Worth. They were there for multiple days during early voting.