Hopefully this guys is fired immediately.
This is pure Liberal fantasy porn, but imagine Trump loses this year, doesnāt win the GOP primary, and then runs 3rd party in 2024. That would be glorious.
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I have a $400 bet straight up with a deplorable on this election plus $50 each on the Senate races in AZ, CO and IA. Iām buying an XBox series X when I win. 
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There is no way Trump loses the primary in 2024. In fact if he loses tomorrow Iām pretty sure the first thing he does is announce heās running again.
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FYP.
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I think if Trump loses by a landslide tomorrow the primary in 2024 is far from guaranteed (although heād certainly be the favourite). Particularly if it was a small number of candidates.
I could also see him going crazy, blaming the GOP, and running 3rd party right from the start.
Although, yeah, weāre like tiny percent chance of this ever happening.
Iām pretty sure if we ever had a pure populist with high name recognition who passes the ultimate āI want to have a beer with that guyā test like Rogan launch a serious 3rd party campaign like Perot, it would crush the dems. 90% of the dems votes come from not being the shitty fascist party. Most of the prominent dem politicians of the last 30 years have been uninspiring old drags like Hillary, Pelosi, Schumer, and Biden. You had Bill Clinton and Obama who were mostly ineffective presidents that held outdated ideas that bipartisan compromise was possible.
Until the democratic party does something about this, the left and even center is highly vulnerable to another Trump or a 3rd party populist who plays spoiler .
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Honestly I have no idea what happens if he loses huge, its really hard to tell. Usually you can see his moves coming from a ways away but not this time. When he (the gop) lost in 2018 it was because the candidates did not support Trump enough. This time it could definitely be the party didnāt support him enough. But 3rd party doesnāt have the resources the GOP does. I canāt see him throwing them completely under the bus IMO. But again could easily be wrong.
dude they can literally murder people and still not get fired
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Agreed. Clinton was incredibly effective at what he wanted to accomplish (i.e. - keep Bill Clinton in power). Itās just that his agenda mostly sucked for actual liberals.
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Both parties could be disrupted this way. A pragmatic āwe get shit done without worrying too much about ideologyā party would do pretty well with the middle 50% of the population, and if they actually wanted to help regular people theyād pick up lots of people from the flanks too.
For a long while Iāve felt that the first party to do a decent job of reforming their own party and dispensing with ~60% of their own bullshit would crush 50 states.
This is very true. Mondaleās loss changed the Democratic Party on a damn near genetic level. Hopefully Trump loses tomorrow by enough to do the same to the GOP. I know Iām going to get made fun of really hard, but the country needs them to return to some semblance of sanity ASAP. Yes I realize Mitch is going to need to die first.
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Yeah, he could spend the rest of his life grifting in perpetuity by just running for president and funneling the campaign contributions to his businesses. And honestly, thatās a trade I would snap fucking call for a Biden win tomorrow. I donāt care if he gets away with everything and spends his days living on his own private island with all the money he makes.
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Nateās model is of course not tuned to perform accurately in these scenarioās, but I keep being amazed that he estimates a 30% likelihood for Trump to win the popular vote if he wins the Electoral College (which he does 10% of the time). Doesnāt seem right at all.
An 8.5ish point polling error in the national vote happening one time out of 30 seems possible.
My fear with letting Trump āget away with itā is that we allow fascists to free-roll. Sure we defeat Trump now, but if there are no consequences, then itās only a matter of time before one binks. Maybe the demographics of the country are enough to stop fascism. Maybe actually going after Trump would be an electoral negative for the dems in 2022. But I am not thrilled with the idea of him winning even when he loses.
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Donāt need to rely on seems, if we know the sample size we know exactly how likely that is.
Presidential elections are really rare events though and we have a very small sample size of them (even fewer if you limit it to elections in the modern polling era) , so I donāt think we know the standard deviation here with great accuracy.
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Itās not a perfectly random sample of the electorate.
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I am imagining a Republican party that tries some version of toned-down Trumpism combined with a misogynist appeal to minority men seeking to cultivate a gender gap among non-whites.