No worries, I’ll look myself and should be able to find it. Be safe these next few days, for real. Try to take a few minutes for self care tonight/tomorrow.
You post stuff sometimes about how you want to constantly be back out there supporting your friends, but taking care of yourself is important and deserved too (just as it is for all of them).
Get a decent meal or watch a funny tv show or get a hot shower and grab a drink, whatever you do to unplug a bit.
Well, Jesus, Nate, don’t fucking tell them about it!
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1323186161586741250
Did I wander into the cuse panic containment thread?
And why am I checking this thread at 446am?
…
and the entire set:
(was pretty hard to choose the most exciting result. Morning consult is B/C with +0.2 dem bias)
Just don’t see how Trump wins Wisconsin, Michigan, or Minnesota with all the polling out of those states. Hold those and Nevada and then Trump has to sweep Arizona, Georgia, Florida, and PA. It seems unlikely that all 4 of those states could have the same correlated polling error shifting them towards Trump.
Slight correction, AZ doesn’t quite do it by itself. You also need one of those weirdo districts in ME or NE. Which are both lean Biden but far from locks.
Edit: But also you missed NC, Trump has to hold that too. And (less relevant but still) OH.
Not 100% fluent but I say no. Changes pronunciation and meaning to something unfamiliar to me— not a word afaik.
That PA pole is an N=2700.
Monmouth’s final pole of PA is Biden +7 under high turnout LV scenario:
https://mobile.twitter.com/MonmouthPoll/status/1323221431682015232
Edit: Monmouth indicates that a “low turnout” scenario is only if a large number of mail ballots are rejected:
I’m sympathetic to Cuse worry about the insane 1% of Trumpers trying some shit in PA. If whether MAGA continues, or Joe Biden and the pedophiles destroy America comes down to PA, and dear leader is telling them Dems are cheating in Phili, I just don’t see that insane 1% not trying something crazy
That said I’m fairly confident at this point that it won’t come down to PA and we will know Biden has won on election night so I’m not really stressed. If it does come down to PA, shit is going to get insane as hell
Well, maybe 1000 people die. That’s about a typical day of covid.
I think the intent was “Go, Trump!”. But POTUS can’t even tweet without spelling errors and creative grammar so idk.
I can’t believe it’s one day before the election. I feel like it has come out of nowhere. Obviously I’ve been freaking out and biting my nails and 2020 has felt like 10 years, but these last 3 days felt like an hour.
In like what, 44 hours we will know whether we absolutely crush, we sweep, and have defeated fascism, or if it’s going to be a huge battle for democracy filled with chaos, likely violence, and insanity, or if its all over, and the country descends into the depths of hell.
I’m making my prediction, crushing sweep for dems on election night. No sweat.
Early voting statistics guy thinks there will be 100 million votes cast before E-Day and that total turnout will be 160 million.
https://electproject.github.io/Early-Vote-2020G/Early_Vote_Analysis_11_01.html
This won’t happen because of one election. If Biden does fuck all about the underlying problems, which is probable, you’ll still have to fight against it in 2024.
I would also point out that fascists can’t be defeated by an election because they don’t respect democratic norms. The best case scenario for tomorrow is that decent people land a blow in long fight against fascism.
Sort of agree. The gaping holes in our democracy to allow it to happen are still there. But I also think a huge part of it is also the GOP establishment being dragged to it by Trumpism, and his cult of personality and willingness to go to the ends of the earth and break every rule, law, and possibility to retain power.
like I can’t imagine Ted Cruz becoming the GOP dictator. I think if Trump gets absolutely crushed the GOP will mostly lick their wounds and go back to normal evil like voter suppression like we’ve never seen before etc. But I don’t think they will try to go full fascism. They will need another Trump, someone who can create a massive cult of people who will believe or do anything.
But yeah if Biden gets nothing done we will be in a really bad spot, likely deadlocked for a long time with the supreme court destroying all of our rights, but I don’t think we’ll be this close to fascism until they can find another cult leader and hopefully demographics will take over by then.
