it’s 34 now. They’re gonna spend all day up there on monday for sure.
FL gotta be #2 in swongs from HAHAHAHAHA to uh
Good point. In a world where Biden loses PA legitimately, 37% to still win seems astronomically optimistic to me, but that’s about what the polls say elsewhere.
The next time I hear someone in person say the founders were geniuses imma go full open hand slap like Dr. D on John Stossel.
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If Biden wins MI, WI, MN, NV which all look like locks for him to me at this point, if he misses PA, any of AZ/NC/FL/GA/OH will get him to 270. He’s not getting OH under that circumstance but the other states are all fairly uncorrelated to PA. Another big poll miss in the Midwest doesn’t mean much for his chances of winning AZ, for example last cycle there was a poll miss in NV in the other direction and Dems won easily.
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Yeah, I meant like I wouldn’t be spiritually optimistic; analytically, sure, squeaking out MN/WI/MI + one of AZ or NC or GA is plausible.
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Thanks, Nate
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prediction
Something will get up to SCOTUS. Could be Harris county or maybe some PA bullshit Tuesday night. Gorsuch will join Roberts for a 5-4 to count votes.
But in the end it won’t matter cause NC or AZ or GA will flip.
At least this lets me sleep at night.
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All the major media outlets declared Biden the winner on the night of November 3rd, and the Supreme Court allowed each of the states to count votes according to their laws.
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Re: Harris County
https://twitter.com/PierceBush/status/1323034336535449613
Pierce Bush may be a Bush, but earlier this year he tried to be at least MAGA-friendly when he ran in the Republican Primary in TX22 (including part of Harris County). He lost of course.
Where are all the other Rs, though?
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I am not sure I agree. If the count starts the results could get out either to both sides or just one side. I think they should be “processed” before the day of and then counted along with the Election Day ballots.
Why not both?
Federalist Soc/SCOTUS will also see if one narrow ruling in just PA could even possibly get trmp to 270, and consider if it needs to rig 3 other states in completely different way. no doubt there’s a point after which they don’t want to blow the credibility of their new conservative majority and will just rid themselves of trump with the stroke of a pen so they can pretend in 2024 that nothing ever happened. if they keep the senate, maybe it’s worth rigging for 4 more years, but if Dems bink 54-46, they just cut their losses and play filibuster and chip away via the courts.
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Not very important, but on Wednesday I checked the odds on Pinnacle for the competitive states they offer.
Checked again now. Added the difference from Wednesday night.
Converted to vig-free percentage.
I can’t bring myself to bet on this but kinda funny to see big changes in favor of Trump without any real polling improvement anywhere except Iowa.
| Biden | Trump | ||
|---|---|---|---|
| Arizona | 52 | 48 | (+4 trump) |
| Florida | 41 | 59 | (+3 trump) |
| Georgia | 40 | 60 | (+3 trump) |
| Iowa | 30 | 70 | (+11 trump) |
| Michigan | 73 | 27 | (+2 trump) |
| Minnesota | 76 | 24 | 0 |
| North Carolina | 51 | 49 | (+1 biden) |
| Ohio | 33 | 67 | (+3 biden) |
| Pennsylvania | 62 | 38 | (+2 trump) |
| Texas | 27 | 73 | (+1 biden) |
| Wisconsin | 75 | 25 | (+6 biden) |
‘Try’ is the word. But they’re soft and won’t follow through and achieve shit. I’ve neglected to weigh in on this because I don’t like even veering towards toxic machismo but these people are goddamn fucking pussies little pussycats veal cutlets. If your entire politics is animated by being content and comfortable yet still afraid, you don’t just magically become a fucking badass overnight ready to commit terrorism and murder no matter how many walmart guns you buy.
Honest to God, I’ve felt weird every time I’ve alluded to this in full (see above: toxic machismo, even though I’ve joked “I punched my first nazi when I was 13 and haven’t stopped since!”) but I used to hang out with the Progressive Labor Party and we’d travel out of county or state to neo-nazi and kkk rallies (because, related, by that time they were scared to set foot in Cook County much less Chicago) to fight them. Not, like, protest/counterprotest but violently run them off. And we were undefeated.
The only reason this, that they’re little baby soft Charmin™ wipes, seems otherwise now is two reasons: 1, they only show up at places with no culture of violently running them off and, even bigger, 2, they use social media to LARP and share pics/vids of them shit talking with their little arsenals so much that they’ve gotten high on their own supply, to the point that they’ve given you all a contact high!
Like ok, @oneeyedtripping posted this in the trump thread,
https://twitter.com/wxandnews/status/1322575404016803840
Stim said this,
and I was like, how in the fuck did anybody involved with that nonsense not see that as the only outcome?!?
Another example, and I say this not to encourage violence or sound tough but to put people’s minds at ease: I’ve mentioned my sister before. Attorney downtown Chicago. Wears pantsuits and shit. But she actually lives across the border in rural Indiana and commutes. And she owns multiple guns. All her liberal and leftist Indiana friends own multiple guns. These MAGA chuds are not going to rich white areas, they’re not going to the hood, and their rural poor and working class white opponents are like, “Bitch I got guns too, you don’t scare me.”
This is all something you don’t have to worry about.
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Yeah, but some of those that work forces are the same that burn crosses.
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