I mean, Trump is almost certainly going to get a higher raw vote total than in 2016, so he’s not really less popular in that sense. His problem is that Biden is going to absolutely crush Hillary’s total.
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why did he cancel the party though?
The thing is, is he really? Like who are these people who didn’t vote for him in 2016 who are coming out now? Maybe some block of weird young people but I also imagine he’s shed moderate voters like a wolfhound.
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Yeah this. Initially I thought Trump was going to get around the same amount of votes because there was no way he was going to gain more voters because all the pieces of shits already voted for him, but nah its clear he has activated a bunch of more uneducated white males over the culture war.
He definitely gained votes by some racists who didn’t pay attention to politics before, and a bunch of conspiracy theorist qanon types who also got activated. Also he made a 10% gain with latino voters which is insane but there it is.
I still expect him to get crushed. I have no idea what would happen if it wasn’t for Covid though which is scary.
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Trump got about 63 million votes in '16. Total turnout this year is projected to be in the ~155M range. Biden isn’t going to win it by 25-30 million votes (unfortunately).
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Trump is a bit more popular than he was in 2016. His approval was in the high 30s I think, and now it’s around 44. Whether the electorate is more or less hospitable remains to be seen conclusively. Only the election can tell us that.
Really the only certain thing in the quote is that Biden is more popular than Clinton. That’s probably enough, but I don’t think there are good theoretical reasons outside of the polls to feel very confident about this election. It’s disturbing that doing a terrible job on this pandemic has not budged Trump’s numbers, for example.
Republicans openly own that voter suppression is good. On the old pro trumper forum I used to post on they openly said shit like you should only be able to vote if you’re a home owner etc. That young people are dumb and shouldn’t be allowed to vote.
We’re way, way passed the point of Republicans feeling shamed over trying to limit the vote. 100% of Trump supporters are fine with voter suppression.
5-4 covers the fact right to vote stuff really well. The 14th and 15th amendment basically do say you have a right to vote, its pretty clear, the supreme court has just never affirmed it.
Which is why we need to pack the court so fucking badly. Pack the court, nuke gerrymandering, new voting rights act, add DC as a state and its GG Republicans.
Less talked about but equally important I think is lift the cap off the house. CA should have 250 EC votes just by itself. If we lift the cap the electoral college will be WAY less of an advantage to Republicans and you can do that with the simple passing of a bill.
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Amendment XV
Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of race, color, or previous condition of servitude.
Section 2. The Congress shall have power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation
Amendment XXVI
Section 1. The right of citizens of the United States, who are eighteen years of age or older, to vote shall not be denied or abridged by the United States or by any State on account of age.
Section 2. The Congress shall have the power to enforce this article by appropriate legislation
Anyone, SCOTUS justice or common everyday citizen, who claims with a straight face that there is no such thing as a “constitutional right to vote” is a goddamned simpleton who should be summarily ignored.
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Nah his approval rating when he was elected was 45%. You can check on 538.
But he definitely has picked up new voters.
He’s definitely more popular with young males, sad as that is.
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Craziest thing I learned from the article: 71% of Republicans think Trump will win the popular vote. 61% think the GOP is going to win the House.
These people aren’t living in reality.
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I think you’re looking at his approval on inauguration day, which was a lot higher than his approval on election day. There was some amount of “ok let’s give him a chance,” sentiment after he won.
Why shouldn’t the polls be off by even more than 2016 now that people have even more reason to be embarrassed about their support for Trump?
I had a bet with a deplorable at even odds that dems would win seats in the house in 2018. Not even win THE house, but just win seats at all LOL. Obv he never paid so lolme
They all legit thought it would be a red wave and republicans were going to CRUSH.
I wish I could just be that ignorant, have zero worries and just be 100% confident. Like yeah we ran super bad lately, but before Trump they got landslided twice by Obama so it’s not like they’ve been running good forever.
But I guess thats what happens when you operate on feels instead of data.
They think everyone they know agrees with them because they don’t voice any disagreement. A lot of them just don’t argue because they don’t want to get into it with loud-mouth morons.
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The Blue Wave of 2018 completely went down the memory hole. Never mind that the polls were actually right and the people predicting a huge Dem win were right all along. Everyone knows the polls are always wrong because muh 2016.
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Ohio has win it on Election Night and avoid the legal battle value.
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