Wasn’t one of the problems with the polls in 2016 that people were shy about supporting Trump? Are any of his supporters still shy about it?
first time was during government shutdown. there is a lot of business that just stops when that happens.
1 Like
Need some clarification
1760s?
1860s?
1960s?
3 Likes
I heard a Dem pollster whose name I can’t recall interviewed on NPR a few weeks ago and he said it is still a thing, just not quite as severe as four years ago. They’re working around it by asking questions like, “Who are your friends/family supporting/voting for?” etc. When those tend to break for Trump they think they reasonably can assume they have a shy Trump voter. I don’t recall how the methodology worked when factoring it into poll results, though.
false, true, pass, false, true.
1 Like
2 Likes
no and no
Listen to model talk on Friday. Nate goes off on the shy trump bs.
3 Likes
Does the Trafalgar guy go the way of Dean Chambers after Tuesday?
1 Like
Cliffs on why the polls were so fucked in 2016 if it wasn’t shy Trumpers?
Over 93 million votes in so far
Early voting in 13 states exceeds 80% of total 2016 votes
| State | % of 2016 Votes |
|---|---|
| Hawaii | 110.6 |
| Texas | 107.8 |
| Montana | 98.8 |
| Washington | 97.9 |
| North Carolina | 95.0 |
| Georgia | 93.7 |
| New Mexico | 93.2 |
| Nevada | 91.2 |
| Florida | 90.8 |
| Tennessee | 89.6 |
| Oregon | 87.8 |
| Colorado | 86.7 |
| Arizona | 86.5 |
5 Likes
People didn’t come out to vote for Hillary due to apathy/confidence/butter emails imo
I almost want to use my 1 time on bullock in MT.
2 Likes
There may have been sporadic polls dropped in that range, but the 538 average was never there. That only happenned in 2017 prior to the tax plan.
They weren’t fucked. Why are we still doing this four years later?
6 Likes
Lol. 1960’s.
No reputable or serious pollster thinks “shy trump voters” are a thing now, and they weren’t a thing back in 2016 either.
3 Likes
They weren’t fucked. That’s the answer. They were pretty accurate, and there was very late polling movement due to the Comey letter.
4 Likes
