It looks like there’s very little polling data from Alaska, but the race is closer than you might think. Still seems hard to imagine that state ever going blue.
Lyndon Johnson, tho
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Joe Biden is no Lyndon Johnson.
Exactly. When most of the (sorry) unknown unknowns probably favour the lowest candidate there’s still a ton of potential downside for Biden now.
I think people are sleeping on the senate race in Alaska, tbh. Not sure about president, but if you had to design a candidate to appeal to the weird Alaskan electorate, Al Gross is that person. He’s running as independent, which is a plus for AK, but will likely caucus with Dems for most stuff, especially climate and public health things.
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dammit
Anyway, Mike Pence is going on Fox News tonight at 7 pm EST.
also
https://twitter.com/PeteButtigieg/status/1306325937328398336?s=20
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Predictit takes like 10 percent of profits and also charges a 5 percent withdrawal fee, so not really.
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You’d be wrong. Alaska is notoriously hard to poll. It’s unlikely for Biden to win it, but putting him in the 10-15 percent chance ballpark isn’t outrageous.
https://twitter.com/melissarusso4ny/status/1306242760761126917?s=21
In the replies seems like the guys grandparents were from
MEXICO
Why did nobody answer this, that’s an option right? Honest question.
I know its possible dems won’t have the fucking spine to go through with it but I’d be willing to drive up and help form and angry mob to make sure they do.
Even after fees, you could still make a tidy profit maxing this out if you were totally certain Biden has no chance of winning.
Max investment is like $850.That’s like $35 in profit after the vig and cashout penalty. Also, it’s not zero risk.
How can Biden lose PA without getting wafflestomped in other battleground states?
If I’m doing this right, $850 would win $988, so the rake would be roughly .1*(988-850) = $14, giving you 974. Cashout fee is .05*974 = $49, so you’d still get $75 profit.
I agree that the risk of losing doesn’t have to be very high before it becomes a -EV bet.
If we’re at a place where the Supreme Court is complicit in rigging the election they’re going to find a way to see it through to the end. They’re not going to say “stop counting absentee ballots” or “well there is no way to tell who people voted for now that Barr’s henchmen destroyed absentee ballots, current count stands” then also say “but Daddy doesn’t get a second term because some states refuse to certify.”
so they can certify the election for the dems even if they refuse? They have the power? Need a lawbro here. A reasonable one who doesn’t still think norms and shit are going to save us.
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