I think FL is red because of shenanigans. I’d make AZ gray, especially with Ducey - thankfully we have a Dem Secretary of State.
NC could be flipped because of having a Dem governor and Sec of State, but it seems unlikely that we’d flip NC and not already have PA/WI/AZ in the bag. It might have a bigger African-American population, though, so that could do it.
I think there’s more reason to be optimistic over the last 10 days than the previous 10 days before that. I thought Kenosha stuff was going to boost Florida Man in WI but there have been like a dozen WI polls showing a stable, consistent above MoE lead for Biden for weeks now. PA seems closer but it’s a relatively big state, as long as Biden is above MoE there you have to feel ok about it. AZ looks good.
What makes it almost a 50 50 thing is obviously outright rigging, tens of thousands of D votes in trash cans in every battle ground state, etc.
Every place between the New Stanton exit and Harrisburg on the PA Turnpike is as bad as any place in West Virginia or (insert rural hellhole here). The people look like another species.
Anybody watching the Vote thing that on ABC right now? Hosted by Kevin Hart and has had appearances from Michelle Obama, Dave Chapelle, Chris Rock, Will Ferrel, Gov Larry Hogan, Arnold Schwarzenegger, Larry David, Jon Hamm, and others. It’s been pretty cringey so far and doesn’t seem to be overtly partisan, but if it gets more people to vote it’s got to be +ev since it’ll be non-FoxNews viewers.