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Me & @jmakin have predicted that Trump wins a second term… Show evidence its not true and I’ll look at it, alough it probably won’t be strong enough to change my mind. That’s just 2020 for ya, alough I’ve held this view all the way through from 2016 onwards.
Not only that, I think the polls are going to continue to show Biden way ahead and then a loss. And it’ll be blamed on bad polling or shy trump voters or something something but I think this shit will be straight up rigged.
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Decent ad for Biden
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I actually think the Trump campaign strategy is pretty good for the hand they’ve been dealt and the candidate they have.
Their best chance is running up the score among non-college educated whites. The racism and fear mongering plays really well among this group, and amazingly there are a ton of them who didn’t vote at all in 2016 who will go huge for Trump if he can get them to the polls.
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So did I, a while ago and put a modest bet on at Betfair at 2.5 
Betfair’s market is for the next President, not the winner of the election.
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Inspiring words. Still waiting for him to tell people that need help that he’s going to help them. This ad specifically references America giving hope to the most desperate people on Earth. But many of their target voters ARE DESPERATE PEOPLE IN AMERICA!!! It kind of rings hollow to hold up America as an inspiration to the world’s poor when you won’t just come out and say more health care more wages more security for America’s poor.
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Well this is encouraging, marginal pollster though.
https://twitter.com/politics_polls/status/1299348627920429056?s=21
That’s the same pollster that predicted Trump would win the popular vote in 2016 by 3 points, when he lost it by 2. If we take that as a Trump +5 bias, maybe Biden is actually +18 lol.
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Agreed
Not entirely marginal, but importantly, very unconventional. They poll the same panel of people over and over again rather than getting new random samplings of people every time. Thus, the absolute totals in it are not super interesting, as any bias in the initial sample will constitute a systematic error, but sustained trend lines are interesting. I don’t know if they preserved their polling population from 2016 or if this is a new one.
My friends Dad didn’t vote for Trump in '16, hated him, said there was no way he’d get re-elected. Then deregulation made him a bunch of money and he started flirting with voting for him in '20. He’s now a believer in hydroxychloroquine, and the civil unrest has him totally cool with enforcing curfews with lethal force.
Just a Pennsylvania swing voter.
Good thread. People are starting to get it.
https://twitter.com/brynntannehill/status/1299305312256757761?s=21
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Another good thread. Trump has to wafflecrush uneducated poor white people, many of whom live in a Sinclair/FNC/Facebook bubble.
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1299389870327115776?s=21
https://twitter.com/redistrict/status/1299398266241642500?s=21
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Other bad news in PA: my vote very well may not count, if I can even get a ballot. I have now made three calls to the board of elections and they refuse to change me from vote by mail to vote in person. The ballots get mailed on 9/15, I move 9/28, and I don’t know my new address yet. The deadline to register is 10/19, but apparently if you’re already registered by mail you cannot change it.
They say once I have my ballot, I can choose not to open it, show up with it and vote in person, and it will be fine. Obviously Trump will sue to block such votes.
They say I can drop it off in person if I don’t want to mail it. Trump is already suing to block such votes.
I asked them to remove my registration so I can register anew. They won’t do that either.
Keep in mind I’ve got a Dem mayor, Dem supervisor of the board of elections, Dem secretary of state, and Dem governor… And I’m in the state most likely to be the tipping point state.
GJGE Dems, you useless fucks.
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Couldn’t you just have the ballot sent to your current address and then have USPS forward all mail from your old address to your new address?
Alternatively, have the ballot mailed to a friend’s address?
Also, consider calling 833-336-8683, which is a Dem-run voter hotline. They may be able to help you find a solution.
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If they get mailed out 9/15 as I was told, and the mail is running in the 10-14 day range, as expected… Does it get forwarded straight away or am I looking at 2 weeks to figure out that it needs to be forwarded and 2 more to get there? It would be cutting it very close. I assume the sorters also have readers that identify forwarded stuff. If they’re removed, how is stuff getting sorted for forwarding?
I’ll try that hotline though, thanks!
This tweet really sums up how i feel in very few characters:
https://twitter.com/BrynnTannehill/status/1299305315096309760?s=20
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