I’m glad we will win olds this time but surely that will shift back after Covid, but I’m really worried about Trump making huge inroads with young people. Biden is only winning like 54%-34%. Now maybe thats mostly because young people hate Biden specifically, I think a good candidate wins those votes back.
But demographics are all shifting in the wrong directions here. Republicans making gains with latinos and young people… wtf. Hopefully this is all just Biden being a complete shit candidate for both groups and covid makes this whole change an outlier.
I think a little bit of that is that it’s just unrealistic to expect the partisan gap to keep expanding in perpetuity among young people. The natural flow of most partisan gaps is that they’re more likely to revert closer to 50/50 than to keep expanding. Tons of young people are shitheads who look at Trump like their favorite pro wrestler. Plenty are making money for the first time in their lives over the last 4 years and went “GRRRR TAXES BADDDDD”.
I’d expect Biden to exceed the 55% of 18-29 voters that Hillary got in 2016 but not the 60% that Obama got in 2012. Maybe you have unreasonable expectations for what a more attractive candidate would get.
The Senate is increasingly less a case of whether Democrats will take a majority, but how large will it be. The chances of the GOP keeping its losses down to a seat or two are dropping; I am thinking that a five- or six-seat gain is becoming highly possible. The three most likely GOP incumbents to lose are Martha McSally in Arizona, Cory Gardner in Colorado, and Thom Tillis in North Carolina. Right on the bubble are Joni Ernst in Iowa, Susan Collins in Maine, and both Georgia seats. A touch back from that are Steve Daines in Montana and Lindsey Graham in South Carolina, as well as the open seat in Kansas. All three states are likely to be won by Trump, so look for a possible repeat of 2016, when every Senate race went to the same party that won the presidential race there—the first time that had happened since the start of direct Senate elections in 1914.
What I am wondering is if this will be one or the rarest species of national elections—a wave election in a presidential year ending in a zero, meaning it will reverberate for a decade thanks to the coming redistricting. There are not a dozen Republican Senate seats that could fall, as Democrats suffered in 1980, but Joe Biden may well replicate Ronald Reagan’s 10-point victory over President Carter. The odds are it will be a bit less, perhaps in the 53 to 44 percent range, with 3 percent going to independents and write-ins, half of the number from four years ago.
Yea if my nieces and nephews are any indication, Trump is gonna get soul crushed by the young vote. They are well aware wages have been stagnant for 40 years and that jobs simply do not pay.
Yeah hopefully polls just suck at picking up young people because they don’t answer random numbers. I know the turnout in Texas among young people is massive.
Maybe I’m missing out on information, but my impression is that our doom and gloom about youth voting preference stems from a single bad cross tab from an A-rated pollster. Or is there more to it?
Yeah maybe I spooked myself because I went on 538 that same poll released a Biden +5! And had Biden only winning 54% of the 18-34 vote.
I know in 18’ dems won like 67% of that vote. So I’m banking on that trend continuing. Almost all my hope for the future is based on demographics crushing the current GOP out of existence assuming we can hold on here and 2024.
I don’t think you can project 2020 splits into the future too successfully. Fascism is a hell of a drug, and it motivates people in unique ways on both sides of the aisle. Trump is a transformative figure in that he has engaged a massively higher percentage of the population in the political process, both for good and for bad.
This election is 100% about defeating Trump, and will probably be seen as a massive, outrageous outlier in the coming years. The degree of political participation will be nowhere near as great as when, for instance, Ted Cruz is on the ballot in 2024.
It’s an odd scale but it’s pretty clear what is being displayed. Left of the y-axis is percentage of votes for Biden. Right is percentage of votes for Trump.