About the NC poll.
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Re: That Monmouth Florida Poll (quoting this from twitter, so I guess fact-check me):
- 58 percent have already voted (and they went 59-39 for Biden)
- 42 percent have not yet voted (53-38 for Trump)
Only 17 percent are planning on voting on Election Day.
So it seems pretty clear that the repubs are cannibalizing their e-day votes too, it’s not just the dems, and while the e-day results are going to be skewed heavily R,the lions share of votes will already have been banked by then.
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55-39?!
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Hes gonna bathe in DQ soft serve on election night, isnt he?
Throwing it around like baseball players do with chmpagne
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No meme has yet been made to contain how awesome that is
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Looking at electproject for early voting results (NC):
Total Voted by 2016 Vote History
Voted Count Percent
Voted in 2016 General 2,858,144 73.9
Did Not Vote in 2016 General 1,009,702 26.1
TOTAL 3,867,846 100.0
Feel free to @me after the election on this, but I think this map is happening, and I wouldn’t sleep on Alaska, Montana, and South Carolina:
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SC will go to Trump unfortunately.
Pretty certain Bidens upper limit is 419
haven’t seen trafalgar on the most recent polls list on 538 since that story came out that they were assuming 20% of dems will vote trump or something crazy
That +5 Ohio is shocking.
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Shit, if Florida is called before midnight, I might douse myself in creemee too.
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The shocking news prompted many fans of Tucker Carlson Tonight to voice their disbelief, on Twitter, that the host had mailed a package so explosive cross-country — without having made copies. But fear not: Carlson told Salon reporter Roger Sollenberger via text that he had indeed made copies of the allegedly hot docs…
[Tucker Carlson: Hunter Biden Documents Lost in the Mail]
So one trend lately is more and more younger people voting. 2018 blew 2014 out of the water for 18-40 year-olds voting. 2016 blew 2012 out of the water and 2020 should crush 2016 in the same demographic.
That seems next to impossible for pollsters to guess at wrt to their “likely voter” formulas because it’s not a straight line and you can’t look at 2016 to guess. Has anyone seen Nate or someone wax on how they decide on a likely voter multiplier for younger people?
Basically I’m hoping the hidden youth vote is going to lead to a big blue surprise the way the hidden Trump vote (blue collar disaffected white guys) did in 2016.
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I’m thinking a similar map and don’t sleep on Kansas in addition to the ones you mentioned.
How many days ago were people freaking out about Pennsylvania?
Now it’s all like “Even Florida is in the bag! Let’s run up the score: Iowa! Texas! Ohio! KANSAS!”
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Every state better follow PA lead and carefully segregate ballots received by and after whatever the current law is for the deadline because if they don’t the Republicans might successfully get all mail in ballots tossed.
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