My guess is the 89/11 move on 538 is mostly attributable to the WI +17 A+ poll. It ticked up WI odds 5 pts and looks like most other states by a pt.
How can both districts be D+25, but the senate seat only be D+4?
I’ll add that I find ME-2 that far in the D column very hard to believe.
There’s a great thread on 22 hosted by a polling expert who will take your questions.
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Because some Dems in Maine still fall for Collins’ schtick
538 has both those races as 97%+ for Dems, but yeah, that’s nonetheless about 10 points higher than their forecast
Because the polls are good. This thread keeps grabbing shitty outlying polls but the polls are steady to an improvement for Biden and there are 6 days left. Nate always said if the polls stayed the same through Election Day the model would probably move into the 90s for Biden, it was the potential of poll tightening that kept the model lower. All the doom and gloom in this thread (which I am guilty of) is also a little lol. All the reputable modelers have been screaming that we should ignore early voting data because it tells us virtually nothing other than that turnout is up from 2016.
Literally the only pole of PA yesterday was a +7, Civiqs. The day before we got a PA +7 (Ipsos), and a PA +8 (Yougov). The PA poll before that was on October 24 and it was a +7. On October 23 we got a PA +7 from Muhlenberg College which is A+. Like +7’s are all over the place. We are zooming on assmussen and trafalgar poles in this thread. Everyone needs to chillax a bit from the doom and gloom.
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Someone upthread was asking about plans for election night.
Do we want to set up a discord or (lol) irc channel? No way the forum keeps up with the volume of posting.
Or maybe jmakin could do a livestream on twitch.
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I’ll only feel comfortable after Riverman calls it for Trump.
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Fair enough I guess.
Lol. Three years into a Biden admin he’ll be posting about ways Biden might still lose.
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We are now 6 days until the election. The 538 average has Biden up 9 points nationally and the 538 model gives him an 89 percent chance to win.
6 days out in 2016 Clinton was up 3 points in the 538 popular vote average and the model had her at 71 percent chance to win.
Biden has literally triple the national vote lead that Clinton had in the polls 2016. His lead right now is also triple the polling lead that Obama had in 2012, larger than Obama had in 2008, that Bush had in ‘04, and that anyone had in ‘00.
The new thread title is tilting as hell, someone please change it.
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I get it, I was doomscrolling yesterday. All the people who do this for a living though, including the people like the Nate’s who correctly pointed out in 2016 that Trump had a very very real chance of winning, are saying something differently this time around. I trust Silver. If he says that Trump has an 11 percent chance of binking, I bet that’s pretty close to the truth. I recognize that 11 percent chances happen 11 percent of the time, but…
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Also, for shits and giggles, Biden’s polling lead right now is larger than Reagan’s final polling average over Carter in 1980.
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I’m much more interested in comparing this spot to 1984 vs Mondale…
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I think a lot of the recent WAAF stuff comes from people itt believing the registered R vs registered D early voting breakdown is a better predictor of how people will vote than it actually is.
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