It’s also the fatalism born from living through the past 5 years.
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Well yeah for sure. I’m also on the WAAF train but I think Biden wins this thing if the votes are counted. Trump will cheat tho
Totally agreed. Florida is the perfect example where it’s at least plausible (I don’t know if there’s actual data) that from 2016 to 2020 a bunch of reliable R voters switched registration from D to R. That hurts the vote total comparisons by registration but changes nothing in the actual votes cast. And there are a whole bunch of factors like this at play across the country - some national factors and some state specific.
We have to wait for the votes to start being counted before we know a lot about the actual results.
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My WAAF moments come from breaking it down by state and being realistic about riggage and judicial interference.
Like I’m sure Nate’s model considers Florida a tossup. Fuck that, I have absolutely no faith in Joe Biden winning Florida. Same for Georgia and Texas, and to a slightly lesser extent North Carolina. Once you cross those states off, PA is the ballgame. And Trump doesn’t have to actually win PA, he just has to get it into the courts. So Biden has to win comfortably. On top of that, there is a history of Midwest polling underestimating Trump.
If also feels like the stuff I’m concerned about is highly correlated, so its easy for the doomcasting to snowball.
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Lots of non college white males who didn’t follow politics but are all aboard the culture war now. I know a couple myself but that’s here in ca.
Well shit, now the 538 average is down to 87/11. Fuck it all, shut it down, we’re all going to die.
Edit: As I was typing this the average shot back up to 88/11. Phew. Ok boys, pack it up, this thing’s over, here comes President Biden.
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Iowa & Georgia are now both Blue on the 538 snake.
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Lol, you’ll be disappointed in that one. Reagan was +18 in the final polling average and the final reasut was… +18.
I know a couple of older registered Republicans who very absolutely horrified by Trump and I’m 90% sure that one or both of them voted for Biden early in SC already. It’s my grandparents, who it bears mentioning definitely voted Trump in 2016 and absolutely loved Sarah Palin of all people. I’m only 90% sure because both have this notion that you don’t talk about who you voted for.
They’re very red but they’re also college educated 65+ people who Biden was literally created to win over. How do you get very red while being college educated (and working in education their whole careers)? Be from east KY lol.
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After reading your post it is now a mortal lock that Biden is going to win Florida, Georgia, Texas and North Carolina, but will lose Pennsylvania.
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There’s an important factor lurking out there that I have to force myself to remember sometimes: pollsters changed their behavior since 2016.
I know that I’m guilty of mentally subtracting 2-4 points from poll numbers I see, just because I’m still shell-shocked from 2016. But pollsters very clearly have changed their beliefs about the importance of weighting by education and by race-education. A +2 Dem poll in 2020 is not the same as a +2 Dem poll in 2016.
I feel like if we gave today’s data to UP from October 1st, there’d be dancing in the streets. But people here seem resigned to a loss already.
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Biden’s going to win California by 30 points and lose Texas and Florida by < 3 points. National polling doesn’t mean shit.
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Look man, I get the numbers. I understand how polling works. I hope you’re right. Cheers.
I think Florida will pretty much be rigged and Biden is drawing dead, but why is NC so far out of reach? They have a Dem governor, so I legitimately don’t understand what the actual rigging machinations there would look like when he would presumably have the authority to force a bunch of oversight and make sure things are done by the book. Judicial stuff is obviously outside of his control.
I appreciate the good folks keeping us honest, but I don’t get the hatred towards the hysterical/dramatic nature of this thread. It’s part of the sweat, the ptsd and the stakes we’re dealing with. I find it comforting.
Not everyone can be gto bots.
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We’re poker players. I’ve played ~3m hands of poker in my life… I don’t have to struggle to visualize what losing a 90/10 would look like.
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Was that at me? I wasn’t even targeting you specifically! I think there’s a difference between 2 groups:
A. People who are so damaged by 2016 and its consequences (and maybe other elections as well) that they naturally believe the worst will happen. This is very understandable.
B. People who claim to be looking objectively at data and who are convinced that all of the recent data is pointing to an obvious loss.
I find myself in group A a lot, and I have to intentionally force myself to step out of it if I can. That’s the group I’d put you in. It’s the group B that’s popped up in the last week that I can’t understand at all.
Meh, maybe it’s that literally everyone here is in group A to some extent and some people are just interpreting the new data with motivated reasoning.
Carry on.
If you’re strongly in group A your brain starts automatically discounting all good news and starts amplifying any potential threat. We would all be overjoyed to have these numbers today two months ago… but right now we’re on the turn all in screaming ‘not a fucking 4… not a fucking 4’.
The combination of losing a 70/30 in 2016 and having lost to 2 outers on the river an uncountable number of times is pretty potent. I mean in 2016 seeing the negative would have meant seeing the future. I hope everyone from the last three days look like bedwetters on 11/4… but do I get where they are coming from on 10/28?
Yes lol it’s tilt idn’t it?
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National polls do not exist in a vacuum from state polls and the national final lead does not exist in a vacuum from the final totals in the states. There exists a national lead point at which Biden is almost certain to win the EC. That point is probably somewhere in the 4-5 point range.
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