Potentially very strongly.
Wasn’t Gillum two years ago in a non-presidential election?
interesting PA is so high, it makes me feel better about my PA stonks on PredictIt during all this looting and rioting. Wonder if he seeing data we aren’t
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district polling as of last week was landslide dem, state polling is just so-so but biden favored, national polling is starting to tighten a bit but biden favored
he’s trusting the first one more than the others
It’s also where some of the disconnect in wagering is. Rest is just full blown one side or the toher is going to win 45 of 50 states idiots.
I don’t follow him, is he adjusting for the fact that very little House polling is in safe districts and that the swing districts that are polled may not be representative?
new title for the thread 
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On what side?
Maybe her Secret Service detail can clear out a church so the Kop can have a photo opp.
You’re awesome and don’t let anyone ever tell you otherwise.
Re: AZ I don’t know how to feel. These idiots are out in DROVES at random pro-Trump gatherings. With that said, I deal with a lot of boomer clients and all but the most whacked out ones are voting for Biden. From what I can see there are very few holdovers from the “I had to hold the party line” crowd.
On a personal level - my mom told me that my dad, 70 and a smoker, might be going to a Trump rally tomorrow. Oh and best I can tell my sister voted for Trump. She’s “hated” him for the last 4 years but my BIL lives on Conspiritard uToobz and she refused to tell me who she voted for. Both of these developments are disappointing to say the least.
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Just heard from a freind who did day 2 of poll worker training here in CA.
So apparently as long as your clothing doesn’t have the name of candidate or party affiliation on it, you can wear it to the polls.
MAGA gear is allowed.
Vote blue? nope.
Time to stock up on “Build Back Better” T-shirts, I guess.
Everyone is pissed about that decision.
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Yeah I feel like if anyone won’t say who they voted for then they have to have voted Trump. Applies where people vote conservative parties all around the world but especially in the USA I imagine.
That just in CA or everywhere? Crazyyyy
I updated it with the right map and a higher quality animation
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Florida was like a safety net in case the Dems lost Pennsylvania. Now they’ve got no fallback plan.
Yea I think these MAGA rallies are hurting Trump, not helping.
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They don’t need either but it does mean they have to hit MN/MI/WI/NV (or IA) /AZ/NH/NE’s point.
Arizona was the fallback plan and well idk if that’s so good either.
Texas is the desperate plan. In other words when they’re spending the entirety of the next 7 days there as a surprise…
AZ is looking fine IMO
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I should say that plan A is still a pretty good plan, meaning that MI WI PA sweep is around 85% across all the forecasts. District twitter is bullish on PA for whatever it is worth. I personally like AZ as it seems to have the best Senate matchup on the ticket.
He’s up 1.46M to 1.26M over Trump based on Nate’s numbers
1M mail = 640k Biden, 280k Trump
2M in-person = 820k Biden, 980k Trump
1M to go = 330k Biden, 510k Trump
Total: 1.79M Biden, 1.77M Trump
So Biden wins, but depends on turnout for that final 1M and also how many more will vote and if his numbers are even accurate.
Having a 200k lead right now is a good thing for Joe.
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