Someone should let Nate know.
This has obviously been the ballgame for months now.
As Riverman said, Gillum was up 4% (4.2) on election eve 2018, and > 75% on 538 to win also on election eve. Most of the metrics for Sleepy are worse.
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Yeah need to flip back the three Midwest states, or lose Pennsylvania but take Arizona + NE 2.
The latter is exactly 270 so there would be chaos.
For the same reason we can’t declare victory we also can’t declare defeat based on early voting. We have no real idea how the pandemic and rhetoric changed how people vote.
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PA is not a mid-western state.
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So I think I figured it out:
Biden needs to win the election
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It absolutely is.
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Being a registered R/D just leads to freak outs here, its a useful metric but nowhere near foolproof.
Oh man, I detect a derail that will need to be extracted. The state that contains Philly is not a midwestern state.
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Yea, when I think of the Midwest, the Poconos come to mind. 
PA is not the Midwest.
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Why do you keep calling him Sleepy?
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Maybe there are a whole bunch of R and NPA olds in Florida that aren’t cool with Trump promoting a virus that easily kills them.
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3/4 commercials on jeopardy/wheel were telling me joe biden dreams only of eliminating medicare and taking away my social security
then a wild one showing joe biden talking about locking up criminals, and a black guy saying, “can we really trust joe biden?” and approved by donald trump like wtf for real. anything goes rn in michigan
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This time it’s 297K to 216K returned in our favor, plus 183K no party affiliation.
If everyone votes party line (I think we’ll do better actually) and NPA splits (we should win it handily) that’s 55.8 to 44.2.
In 2016 it was 343K to 228K with 198K NPA. So I’ve got 57.7 to 42.3, and of course we lost.
So we need to either run better among NPA than we did in 2016 (we should) or crush turnout this weekend (maybe).
Also, I’m not sure we should be so focused on Miami-Dade. We might see a big pop in northern Florida urban areas with a higher percentage of African-American voters. Miami-Dade is only slightly blacker than Florida is statewide.
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oh good philly riots
perfect timing
WAAF
No it absolutely is not.
Source: I can post my driver’s license if you like.
I mean a lot of the country will be convinced Biden is for cutting Medicare and Social Security and Trump wants to protect them. That’s just the nature of things here.
Fuck, more?