famously showed Romney winning AA
The moment @BadPokerAnalogy would have said the poll was sus
Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen a long time ago. Even he’s bashed them a bit.
Gravis polls have actually been too good for dems. Odd.
Trashalagar got caught making shit up but I actually like the idea of polling your neighbors instead of you. Who the hell answers these things other than people with too much time on their hands, your avg joe voter isn’t gonna answer a bazillion question poll.
Huh? Kavanaugh is saying he’s going to mandate that state election legislation is followed and limit the ability of state courts to make rulings which impinge on this law. This is a jurisdictional fight over whether state courts or SCOTUS get final say over whether state law is being followed properly. The argument is that because Article 2 of the Constitution enshrines state legislatures as the body who decides how electors are chosen, then whether or not the will of the legislature is being followed is an issue of constitutional law and therefore within the purview of SCOTUS. This was a bullshit argument when Rehnquist wrote it and it’s a bullshit argument now, it’s usurpation of the authority of state courts by SCOTUS. What it is not, is this:
a SC judge literally writes that he will rule to stop counting votes that arrive after Nov 3rd regardless of state election laws
It’s precisely the opposite of that.
Edit: This doesn’t mean that legislatures get to decide after the fact that they’re changing the rules on how electors are chosen, because again, 3 U.S.C. § 1 provides that the state’s method of choosing electors be put into action on election day. It’s too late then for the legislature to retroactively change its mind about how it works. What remains is the question of how to interpret the procedure already laid down; Kavanaugh is saying that SCOTUS, not local courts, has ultimate authority to make those rulings.
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that’s an interesting catch but “state election code enacted by the legislature” implies governor signed it.
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Interesting. I hope so. I won’t rest easy til it’s over.
I’m getting it too. My YouTube otherwise consists of disney songs and poker videos
we will see. I am skeptical of what their audience is in a post-Trump world.
Florida seems gone. Best to focus elsewhere.
You can get very good odds on Trump winning Florida. Might be worth it but it takes too much of my soul to bet Trump
Yeah. Gillum was polling +4 and lost. My hopes are close to zero.
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It’s down to Pennsylvania, then.
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In 2016 Miami-Dade county had R 60.87%, D 57.70%, and NPA 48.83% party turnout for early or mail-in voting. I don’t know what any of that means, but I looked it up.
Nov 2016 party affiliation:
2016 early voting:
Edit: Hillary received 624,146 votes vs Trump’s 333,999 in the final tally for the county.
The only state beyond WI/MI/PA that Sleepy may get is AZ, and that could offset a PA loss depending on the Maine/Nebraska 1 EV silliness and perhaps IA. My waafy 7th sense says Florida is lol gone, GA gone, NC < 50%, AZ 60/40. Subject to change if data supports it but we’ll see.
The less waafy take is with a 9pt national lead, he should carry the Midwest and PA, otherwise, shrug.
538 has Biden at 65-35 in Florida. Why are we writing it off?
How is Florida lost if it’s 65-35?
My pony is lost.
because we’re looking at actual votes. Dems aren’t up by enough basically.
You must be new round here. WAAF!
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This place is great. I think we’re going to basically sweep everything but have to fade chaos in the courts, others think we’re basically drawing to PA and trying to flip PA/WI/MI back.
We’ve all figured out how we can lose. Let’s just go win instead.
Seven more days!
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GA is still a fight.