https://twitter.com/natesilver538/status/1321227450991464452?s=21
Nevermind, I missed that the early in-person was 49-41 TRUMP lead. Yeah, if Biden loses early in-person there’s zero chance he can win Georgia.
Yes I independently confirmed it by thinking about it.
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Apropos of Nothing but Iowa is up to 50 percent of it’s total 2016 vote and democrats have an 18 point advantage over republicans.
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Oh man, now I’m worried about looking like a dummy. Give me a little bit - I’m doing some actual work for pay right now.
EDIT: I just did it really quick on Windows calculator, basing it on the current 3 million total early votes with a 1/3 mail, 2/3 in-person split.
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If we win IA we definitely won the rest of the midwest…
i’m sure there are bigger experts here, but what you’re saying is what Roberts wrote, not what Kavanaugh wrote. At least those are the links brought here.
the issue wasn’t the SC decision, that was an obvious one. The issue was Kav’s remarks in the foot note.
If you have a different analysis of what Kavanaguh wrote go ahead.
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Not a dummy. I misread the original tweet. I thought it was 49/41 Biden in the early in-person.
Sorry, cosplaying as soldiers is what I meant. Didn’t mean to minimize
Even the mathematicians are up in arms.
https://twitter.com/JohnAllenPaulos/status/1321202723015004165
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I don’t think you can conclude much of anything useful from this. Here are the numbers:
7 mm reg voters
80%? turnout (2016 was 75%)
5.6mm votes
So far:
1mm mail votes
2mm early in-person
Let’s say that finishes at 1.15mm and 2.4 respectively. That would leave 2.05mm election day votes.
If they broke down like Nate is showing in this post then Trump wins overall by like 12 pts. So obviously Nate’s polling sample was not representative when considering method of vote.
Welp, I’ll deliver the bad news to the Biden campaign.
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if GA is GOP +12, trump won the popular vote. So either polls are hilariously wrong or there’s something off that led to your results.
I guess I don’t really see how you can have a poll that is Trump +4 but then have those numbers for people that have voted/not voted unless you are weighted your poll but not weighting the votes.
Whenever I see the small version of your avatar I think it’s elky.
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Brag, I used played starcraft with Elky ( friendly non competitive team games ) back before he started poker. Actually how I got into poker, the starcraft community teamliquid.net and how a lot of top players started making money online so I gave it a shot.
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I’d snapcall him over Biden knowing absolutely nothing and would also bet he runs a pretty mean SPACE FORCE.
An order from who? Their Captain, yeah I think they would follow that order. But that order has to come from somewhere, these guys aren’t going rogue (unless they are off duty). So like, who is giving that order in your mind? A suggestion from Trump during a TV appearance wouldn’t do it imo.
ACAB of course but they aren’t a monolith.