Adelson literally just gave Trump 75 million (over 125 total this cycle). He regrets nothing and will die peacefully in his sleep at age 100, on the night of Don Jr’s inauguration.
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No, this isn’t right.
The 40% isn’t representative of the overall vote outcome. It’s heavily tilted towards the people that will never flip. To get to an overall popular vote tie he probably needs something like a +10 flip (but of course we can’t actually know the make up of the final vote so we can’t know the actual number).
Take into account that the environment in the swing states is worse and the method of voting that is done early has a higher rejection rate and we should be nowhere near as confident as some people in this thread are with the early voting data.
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Yeah I read some articles and some posts here about him and Trump being in a pissing match about donation sizes and COVID response. Must have been bullshit… or Adelson is donating huge to prop up down ballot republicans. Doesn’t really matter either way, I still wish a horrible death on the guy without regret or humor.
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He can DIAGF
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Trump is getting rocked with suburban women and people over the age of 65 vs 2016. The polls might be wrong but they aren’t that wrong. Also it’s pretty safe to say that the African American vote is going to show up to vote against Donald at least as hard as they did to vote for Obama.
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I’m fine with that logic and certainly I think it’s unlikely Trump makes up enough ground to win. BUT my point was that it’s nowhere near a 16 point flip / polling miss that’s required for him to win.
I also think that this supposed election day red turnout wave isn’t going to live up to expectations. Conservatives are early voting in pretty good numbers too, particularly in FL… and it’s not just our side that can cannibalize our election day results with early voting.
He won, under nearly optimal conditions, by 70k votes last time across three states. I think the people who still support him will go to their graves loving him, but I also think he’s picked up practically zero new supporters since his inauguration… and he’s lost most of the voters who held their nose and voted for him. He’s been much much worse than any of those people could have ever anticipated.
Dude I’m a fatass who loves to eat out… and I haven’t dined in at a restaurant since late February. Nobody is happy about 2020, and without doing a ton of work to con yourself into believing Trump isn’t at fault, there’s absolutely no good way to look at how it’s been handled. It’s very likely the biggest disaster in US history by the time it all wraps up, but it’s very definitely the worst in living memory.
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I think Nate Silver made the observation that’s it’s really hard to infer anything from early voting numbers alone (other than it’s good to have the votes locked in), and that bigger turnout is more meaningful (especially for Biden).
Overheard this on NPR this morning and thought “Wow, that’s a terrific metaphor for what we need to do next Tuesday.”
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Can I just fast forward to next Wednesday?
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Welpppp riots and looting right now in Philly, not the best for early voting turnout.
fuuuuuuuuuuuck, this is exactly what the right is hoping for.
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A number of people have pointed it out. And there are different variations. Here’s Nate C. on Texas:
https://twitter.com/nate_cohn/status/1321055129156595713?s=21
Here’s where some of the fear about what SCOTUS will do comes from. Not at all a leap from this opinion to the opinion that all votes need to be counted by midnight (or other arbitrary deadline).
Now, I don’t think a majority would agree with stopping counting day of. But that’s far from certain.
https://twitter.com/ericbradner/status/1320928465365979138?s=21
By the way, also easy to see how this allows closing polling stations with long lines. All states have to do is make it take a long time to vote then they get to stop voting at a predetermined time under the logic that voters should have arrived earlier and the State has a need for quick results.
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I am terrified of many things but you guys are way too worried about this particular ruling and its implications.
There is no statutory or constitutional basis for not counting votes that are cast on election day or arrive by election day, period.
The WI case was actually a challenge to an existing statute that says mail in votes have to be received by a certain date. And while I realize there is zero intellectual consistency among conservative justices, they actually ruled that states get to determine their own election rules, theoretically limiting the circumstances in which SCOTUS could step in to rig.
Again, absolutely anything is possible, but the stuff you guys are worried about amounts to a blatant coup.
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And the dealer owes his (her) job to Trump
And Trump has the keys to the cash cages
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make every US citizen a justice, republicans can’t counterpack, boom.
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You spelled month wrong
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