This… did not help me sleep well.
My read is that Trump thinks he needs to win or make it close enough to do some light disenfranchisement. Like do you think he even does the 3rd debate if he thinks he can steal it outright regardless of the election results?
I think worrying about it and thinking it is the most likely outcome are two different things. What keeps me up at night is Trump + 5 complete partisan stooges on the Supreme Court. I asked it last night and no one had a good answer for me so I will ask it again. IF Trump and the SC decide to steal the election what is the mechanism to stop it?
I don’t see Chuck and Nancy doing anything. The military and police are not going to do anything to stop a Supreme Court ruling. Peaceful protest isn’t going to change anything.
And here’s the thing. Trump and the right wing news machine have literally been laying the groundwork to do it for 6 months. I don’t think that is the most likely outcome but if it happens it will work just as easily as ACB’s confirmation. I don’t think it is likely to happen because Trump deep down is a coward.
My only point is if it does happen our side is completely impotent at the worst possible time.
2 Likes
Meanwhile on PredictIt, you can still by No Rep for CA at 0.93.
2 Likes
I don’t think there is any way to stop it within the framework of the law
2 Likes
I replied to a post from clovis8 where he posted an episode of RadioLab where they examine some war games around a disputed election result. The answer seems to be “the military” but how that would actually work or look is up for debate. And if we even get to that point, where the military does somehow magically intercede for Biden, that’s still a terrible, terrifying result.
Even in a better scenario - the electoral college works, and SCOTUS stays out of it, and Biden is sworn in properly: Trump riling up 25% of the country with thoughts that the election was rigged against him is an awful, awful result. That 25% is the most heavily armed and mentally unstable group we have.
It’s almost like electing a narcissistic conspiracy monger was a bad idea.
6 Likes
Rally in Nebraska tonight and Arizona tomorrow so naturally the full apparatus of the traveling US President will be staying overnight in… Las Vegas.
Always Be Grifting.
3 Likes
If only a blatant coup sounded wildly unrealistic…
2 Likes
I think a very likely scenario is that Trump wins in November 4th, declares himself the winner, all the letters break out from the eDems & as the GOP have been running the show all along they pay Trump off to step down with pardons for all & up steps???
Putting the fears of the country to rest… Its not Trump we should be worried about its who has masterminded this whole thing we worry about, it may be that Covid-19 has put Trump to ground and they see an out.
If i was the governor and the court said to stop counting the INITIAL count that is proceeding according to STATE law, i tell them to get fucked ,keep counting and report results.
The governor has enough resources(men with guns) to secure the essential polling places if needed.
This of course doesn’t stop the above from happening, but states don’t have to just roll over.
If they seize and destroy ballots , schedule and hold a special election, in a couple weeks.
Then run for president next cycle.
3 Likes
If Biden wins FL on election night, like Nate thinks he will/projects a 2.0 lead, its all over and Trump can do nothing to rig it. If not, all bets are off even if Biden sweeps rust belt + other things like NC/AZ.
1 Like
Georgia early voting up to about 3 million (1/3 mail, 2/3 early in-person), about double what it was this time last election. Total vote count in 2016 was 4.1 million.
55.4% women so far. Also, I believe the percentage of olds has decreased from a couple weeks ago. 50+ is at 60.5% (split equally between 50-64 and 65+).
1 Like
I don’t think anyone who has been talking about this Kavanaugh thing, here or in the twitter threads that have been posted here, have been arguing anything else. People are reacting strongly to this because Kavanaugh is saying they’re going to do the blatant coup thing, is my understanding of what people are saying. That, coupled with the “what’s the mechanism to stop them?” thing Wichita keeps pointing out, is what has people riled up, I think.
5 Likes
Grandmother isn’t doing well, so I had to drive to PA and visit on Friday. Trip report from deplorable coal country PA…
It’s still deplorable. I’ve got maybe 6 sparsely populated miles to drive between the highway and my parents’ house, and I’d estimate 10-15 Trump signs and no Biden signs.
On the plus side, pretty sure this is fewer Trump signs than 2016, and none of the signs are “Trump Digs Coal” signs this time around. I’m interested to see if the Dems can peel off 5-10% in these rural counties in PA.
2 Likes
The Court has no enforcement mechanism for shutting down the initial count. Elections are run at the state and local level, and the results have to be certified. Results can’t be certified if an initial count isn’t completed.
3 Likes
Just to be 100% clear I think Trump gets destroyed a week from today if the votes cast by the state deadlines are all counted.
If they are going to cheat though why would they not go all the way? Suddenly growing a conscience? Ultimately you are relying on Trump or a Supreme Court packed with Trump stooges doing the right thing.
Damn, this text I received got right to the point:
“Hi, I’m Jean with Frontline Election Defenders, we’re protecting our election from radical white supremacists by monitoring polling places. Are you interested?”
9 Likes
Couldn’t they just invalidate the results past election day totals because reasons?
I mean, maybe? But I think the thought exercise illustrates how absurd such a ruling would be. There would be no results to certify and literally no basis for the decision. Also the case has to get to them somehow. What is the constitutional argument for shutting down an initial count? There isn’t one. It would be the end of democracy, full stop.
3 Likes