To get a 35% average it has to mean basically zero people who are not republicans answered yes.
I figure 8% is the cheating proof margin.
1 Like
6% of Democrats and 35% of independents said yes in that poll.
52% of Americans in that poll say they are personally better off than they were four years ago.
1 Like
The fact that there is polling like that and we are still sweating the election really highlights how poorly the US electoral system is designed.
3 Likes
That movement has almost nothing to do with a convention bounce. There have been only two total polls, both national, no state polls, in the database that contain any post-convention data at all, and only one that’s 100% post-convention. That one poll is Biden +10, and it’d get damped by Nate’s model for having a bounce.
A lot more of the movement can be attributed to some favorable state polls that came in Thursday and Friday that might have some early convention data, but not much. Most of those are from previously unknown or mediocre pollsters, so it may not be the best data, but it’s data nonetheless.
2 Likes
Can we ban white men from voting for a cycle or two?
Think of it as making up for the times when only white men could vote.
3 Likes
Wasn’t Hillary running at 7+ through the fall?
Hillary bounced around like crazy though, and was never over 50. Biden is consistently over 50 and his lead has been really really steady. Trump can still win because, cheating, but Biden’s polling lead is much much better than Hillary’s was. Also the single biggest thing giving HRC her 7 point lead in the fall was probably access hollywood. But again, that was just trump voters saying none of the above or third party, which is why neither of them were close to 50 percent despite her 7 point lead.
Trump can still win for sure, but he needs the polling average to shrink to like 4 and a polling error in his favor. If Biden wins the popular vote by about 3.5 or more, he’s basically assured an EC victory. Biden +3 popular vote can easily be a trump victory however.
64% of Republicans think America is better than four years ago, as a country, because they personally have more money.
Ask not what your country can do for you, and such.
I don’t think that’s correct. I’m pretty sure it needs to be either +5 or +6 to get above 95% certainty on the electoral college.
That’s not the crazy part. How to 52% of people overall think it’s better now than 4 years ago!
Honestly, I’m not even sure I believe 64 percent of republicans have more money, and I’m also not sure if, even if that were true, that that would be the reason. So long as they can say Merry Christmas and fuck over minorities, I think they’re happy with less money.
1 Like
I can at least see the logic in “I’m an average guy and I’m doing better, so America must be doing better”. It’s selfish as fuck, flawed logic, and the first part might not even be correct, but I can at least get from A to B.
“Confidence in Donald Trump”? What the fuck does that even mean?
He will lead us through this mess by constantly hoping for a miracle around the next corner
52% think they are personally doing better, 35% think the country is doing better. I am personally doing better than four years ago, but I think the country is an abject disaster and me doing better now than four years ago has absolutely nothing to do with Donald Trump.
I believe that 64 percent of Republicans think they have more money, I don’t believe most of them really do.
1 Like
Also Biden had a real moment at the convention. Directly crushed the main attack point against him. Hillary and Bill popped balloons like dufeses.