Curiously, this pollster has no rating from 538, and apparently hasn’t done any presidential polling, at least that 538 has noticed, prior to this cycle. A cursory glance doesn’t show much about their methodology, either, so the data may be suspect.
Also +7 in PA, -2 in NC. But it’s hard to judge this pollster.
Biden being up more in Florida than Pennsylvania seems very strange.
Covid.
Yeah he does seem to be running better than expected in the sunbelt compared to the Midwest. I do think the sunbelt is probably the future for the dem party.
I’m pretty sure Biden started polling better in FL and AZ when they had really bad outbreaks. But yeah slowly but surely, millennials are moving to growing cities in the Sun Belt and the Midwest may get whiter and older.
It’s only all that strange if you’re comparing to elections prior to 2016. In 2016, PA was only just a little more than 2 points less Trumpy than FL. A three point shift is an ordinary polling error.
I didn’t really investigate but apparently that pollster is not exactly well-known.
Isn’t the whole point of Biden’s candidacy is that he can win Pennsylvania?
Who said he’s losing Pennsylvania?
Pollster had a biden +8 national a few days ago so uh there’s some minor amount of data that they’re not ridiculously off. But still.
Fair point. Bad question on my part.
It’s not, but I’m sympathetic to Nate’s argument that as long as the pollster isn’t engaged in outright fraud or malpractice, more data is better.
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@Trolly did you write this? Article about Wisconsin farmers that explains why Biden needs to make an affirmative case.
How Suffering Farmers May Determine Trump’s Fate | The New Yorker
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So simple, so relevant, so good. Sadly.
Well duh. 4 years ago the President was black. BLACK!
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Just holy fucking shit at 75 percent of republicans looking around right now and being like “yep, much better than 4 years ago.” Like, I get the argument “things are worse but it’s not trump’s fault and he can fix it.” But “things are better than four years ago!?!” Jesus fucking Christ.
538 polling average up to 9.2 spread: National : President: general election Polls | FiveThirtyEight
Probably just a convention bounce and he’ll drop to 7 or 6 after the repub bounce, but if he can stabilize at about 7.x until the election (where he’s been for months), tough to see a trump win.