To reiterate some things that Nate has pointed out (and make sense) - Pollsters are judged by their last published polls, and there would seem to be some incentives in place to publish something more along the lines of a Biden +7 than a Biden +14.
Reason being, if you publish Biden +7 and Biden wins by 14, it doesn’t feel like as big of a miss than if you publish Biden +14 and it’s a tie and Trump wins the EC.
In person votes for first two days of early voting in NYC are 7% of 2016 total votes.
Calculated based on these sources: Early Voting Check-Ins | NYC Board of Elections and https://www.elections.ny.gov/2016ElectionResults.html
The actual percentage of 2016 turnout that has already voted is higher because of mail in voting, but I can’t find any statistics on mail in votes in NY.
This suggests that Biden is losing Pennsylvania by about a point. If we’re at 20% turnout right now, with Biden winning 87%, and the remaining 80% turnout only supports Biden 38%, then that means he has
0.87 x 20 + 0.38 x 80 = 47.8 points total.
I did the same math for Trump and he has 49. How are they getting Biden with such a big lead? Looks like they significantly oversampled early voters, unless the early voting numbers of 1.5m are wrong or out of date.
Nah, this fails to take into account that there’s like at least a one week lag between people who have “voted” (ie: they mailed in their ballot), and what the PA SOS is reporting as recieved. Plus PA didn’t update over the weekend. They’re at the same 23.7 percent this morning that they were at on Friday.
Your pony is in the mail.
The Economist model removed Trafalgar’s poles from their model after Traf got caught with bogus cross tabs and now is at a 95 percent chance of a Biden win.
NYTIMES Upshot is releasing a pole of Texas today at 1:00. What will the results be:
0 voters
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/1320720265316282368?s=19
Clinton’s advantage was down to only about 4 points in the national average 9 days from Election Day 2016. Her advantage had been as high as 7 points with about 21 days to go. Clinton’s 45% vote share was low enough that it left Trump with a lot of room in the final week of the campaign to corral voters who favored neither candidate at this point.
One of those is all adults, and the other is the USC poll that’s more interesting in its trendlines than absolute values. Not especially great poals.
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1320722810365423616?s=19
15M away from 75M, half the expected turnout.
USC trendline moved +1 Biden in the past day, it was +12 in the high voter turnout scenario.
Note that NY is not included and PA hasn’t counted in like 3 days, so we probably are really close to half. Texas early voting slowed down a tad on Sunday, only up to 82 percent of total 2016 turnout (had been 80 as of Sunday).
Well, this is interesting…
https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1320722591536074753
Two Texas counties, Denton in the Dallas-Fort Worth suburbs and Williamson in the Austin suburbs, have now surpassed their total 2016 turnout with early voting, according to Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report.
Those numbers may worry Republicans, given the two counties have been moving toward Democrats since 2016.
Republicans expect more of their supporters to turn out on Election Day itself, but early voting could give Democrats a slight advantage heading into November 3.
Are we expecting dwindling numbers for early voting as this final week moves forward? Not sure if there’s useful historical data to go by.
No one knows. This is kinda crazy times.
Umm…How far have they moved? Denton was +20 for Trump in 2016. Williamson was +10 for Trump.
ETA: Also, +8 for Cruz in Denton in 2018. Williamson was +3 for Beto.
Lol, clearly Aubrey Huffs paint
I have nfi but it clearly looks like part of a huge groundswell of early D turnout that if reflected in critical states will see the end of the orange fuckwit.
I realise none of this is exactly surprising, but it’s encouraging at least…
Maybe. Just saying I’m not sure why record turnout in a Trump +20/Cruz +8 county would worry Republicans. Williamson county seems like it could be shifting to a lean D.
So am I. Fuckin up yo polez