got posted here somewhere Trafalgar got caught making shit up in their polls in their crosstabs but I didn’t see it posted where the dude initially tried to defend it and has now settled on “IT"S FAKE NEWS LOL LIBS”
lmao
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Not sure if ponied on this. I need photoshops of Ivanka now.
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I was bored for 2 minutes
The race according to Surveymonkey polls. That is a frustrating # of lean R states and probably not gonna get any of them. 327-144 with TX/FL as tossups.
A lot of polls are pretty confusing to me a fair number of them either national poll is good and states are just so-so or the reverse. It’s just odd.
If there is a super dem wave, Nebraska is polling right around Kansas, nobody is talking about it because only survey monkey has polled it and I don’t really believe even in a super wave they’d get there and LOL good god did dems blow it in the senate race.
One is better for Dems
Only need to get out the vote one time to have a swing of up to 4 in the Senate. Hoping that’s enough incentive to get people out.
Survey Monkey is a terrible pollster though.
… does, uh, does daylight savings actually create a new hour of time? Can the government do that every day please I am behind schedule on numerous projects.
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A great sign, but friendly reminder GA is the most rigged state in the country. They destroyed hard drives when a judge ordered them to hand them over to the FBI, IIRC they still have super sketchy machines that don’t have paper back ups, there were defective machines in Dem districts, they purged like a million black people from their voter rolls before 2018, and will be tossing hundreds of thousands of mail in ballots based off signatures.
I’m more hopeful for Florida, but they will be doing the same thing with mail in ballots at least. We will need the turnout to be massively underestimated and actually be like +5 to win there due to the signature matching bullshit.
In the new voting rights bill they absolutely 100% need to have the signature matching shit thrown out federally, it’s bullshit science anyways.
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I once wore my retainer for 24 hours and 15 minutes on a fall back day just so I could draw a bar above the little graph the orthodontist had me use to track usage.
NERD ALERT
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The second part of that.
Surely that PA is a misprint? I can’t find this poll anywhere else yet.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320699272321507328?s=19
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8 days out, starting out with some solid poles
Lol wtf, after taking this screenshot, 538 changed the numbers
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Biden back to 88/12 in the 538 model!
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Google docs link doesn’t work. The 87/9 split in PA seems…out there. And very gg if true, no?
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how much of the vote is in in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan?
Last I saw about 1.5M in PA (as of Friday). 2016 turnout was 6M. Not sure about the others. Been focused on PA much more.
Also, TIL PA has no “in person early voting” but I guess people line up for hours just the same to get their absentee ballot same-day or something?
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yeah I was calculating off those numbers as well, but the poll only ran till October 21st so we’d need the numbers until October 21st to make any kind of inference.
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