I wouldn’t count out either in a runoff. Yes, D’s do worse, but not a ton worse. In Ossoff’s last runoff it went from 48.8%D to 48.2%D (and 51.2%R to 51.8%R). Not a huge swing.
Key will be whether Trump loss discourages any MAGAtards from voting - either through demoralization or thinking vote will be rigged again and whether high D voter enthusiasm continues without Trump to vote against.
NY uses a stupid antiquated system where they “canvass” the absentees after Election Day.
Nate says the cross tabs are highly suspicious. Bu the cross tab for my pony is suspiciously absent.
if barr doesn’t BERST out of hiding 2 days before the election, joe is probably gonna get covid. it’s 2020 and trump is a fish on the biggest heater of all time
i cannot accept that we are any better than 50/50. if believing it’s 87/13 makes you feel better over the next 9 days, you’re lying to yourself and you’re a sucker
I think Trump has a lot of literally insane supporters who think Joe is going to steal their guns and is a pedophile and will murder babies. Like they think Biden winning would be the end of their comfy lives. Plus they might assume they would get pardoned by Republicans in their state like Texas because the narrative will be they saved America by stopping fraudulent votes.
But yeah in the swing states with democratic governors they would be risking their freedom for sure. I still think there are plenty of crazies willing to do it. I think you underestimate how far gone these people are.
Jery get covid
I assume they are so far gone that I would rather troll the crazies by acting like the lies they believe about Biden are the reason I am voting for Joe rather than try to change their minds.
Better to be dead than pay an extra 2.6% in taxes.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320381379067215875
If you’re not a lets delve into the crosstab guy, who the fuck is??
Some people are attracted to real men, not soft, pasty cuck liberal snowflake “men” who don’t even know what a firing pin is, and put too much emphasis on spelling and annunciation.
Written by Awval?
A visit generates huge brand awareness and audience engagement. People talk about it because the candidate is coming to their city or state. People talk about it because they’re going. People talk about it because they’re not going. People talk about it because they went. And then the people who talk about it because they went–the people who felt moved by seeing the candidate in person will become some of the loudest local voices for the campaign. Word of mouth from a trusted friend in the city will do a ton to persuade voters in a way that the candidate can’t–but of course that word of mouth was in part seeded by the candidate’s visit.
It matters very little to us at Unstuck because we are so engaged with politics that we form a pseudo-relationship with the candidates as soon as they enter the political conversation. But for everyone else, a candidate visiting their city may be the only real chance they have to feel connected with the candidate.
Like that video of Biden’s instant reaction to someone crying and asking for a hug was to embrace him and tell him it was going to be all right. We fawned over that video. Can you imagine your commitment to Biden if you’d seen that happen in person?
11 was the polling for South Dakota in 2016 before he won by 30 points
I see way too much of this, comparing current polls to previous results. apples to oranges polls to polls isn’t great either but better.
I’d bet a fair bit Trump will outperform 11 in SD anyway.
They must have some internals and are going for the senate throat.
https://twitter.com/jmartNYT/status/1320431713021878272?s=19
I haven’t kept up on this but I think Democrats have an outside shot at taking the Texas House which would allow them to control redistricting, something that has to be worth like 10+ US House seats.
I think there are some specific environments where Warnock or Ossoff could win in a runoff. It would have to be some kind of situation where Dem enthusiasm is crazy high like the Supreme Court handing the race to Trump and the Senate hanging in the balance.
Without checking, I seem to recall Biden has been outperforming Hegar by 3-5 points in most of the polling. There are definitely some flippable house seats, but Cornyn seems a bridge too far.
I should do my homework, but would the run-offs be on the same day? Seems like if so that could be helpful to Ossoff.