One thing that brings me back down to earth is Republicans control GA & FL. They will be tossing hundreds of thousands of ballots based off signatures, mostly black voters of course, plus other shenanigans. We probably need to be like +5 to win those states.
Though hopefully the polls are vastly underestimating unlikely voters and turnout and dems crush there.
Dallas County has surpassed 560,000 ballots cast during early voting for the 2020 election with more than a week to go.
By the end of the day Friday, 563,148 people have early voted in person or by mail, according to the Texas Secretary of State website.
According to Judge Clay Jenkins, with the ballots cast Friday, the county surpassed its overall early voting record from 2016.
Who pays for all these groups to do months and months of constant polling? They all just release their results publicly (except for the internal pollsters) so where does funding come from?
A lot of poles are supported by major media outlets or universities. Not sure about the rest
Yeah this is something I posted about way earlier. This is one of my bigger concerns. A bunch of insane proud boys or whatever attack some of the places counting mail in ballots and destroy them.
Similar to how Roger Stone stopped the recount. I could totally see this happening. Trump crushes on election day in some swing states, trump starts screaming mail in ballots are fraudulent and they must be stopped, and bunch of pro trump crazies take matters into their own hands.
If they destroy a ton of mail in ballots what happens? We basically have to hope Dems win enough states houses to decide the election via congress but thats probably unlikely.
Article about how the organization Beto built for the 2018 senate race has continued today and is playing a big role in Texas again.
Probably not, at least for statewide races. I think there were some races in the 90s where a Democrat would have won a runoff, but the threshold was no one above 45% then. It was changed back to 50% after the Republicans won control of both houses of Georgia’s legislature in 2004.
Democrats have never won a statewide runoff in Georgia history. Dates back to 1992.
The county also went blue in 2018 when it had much higher turnout than 2014
Higher turnout there means bluer
Fuck, so basically there is no point in even posting Georgia senate races or hoping we can win those states.
Just my gut instinct, but I do feel like Warnock has a chance. He’s endorsed by everyone and people really don’t like Loeffler (I think she’ll beat Collins). The problem with runoffs in Georgia is that Dem voters don’t keep their momentum, while Republicans continue to turnout in droves. I’m hoping this year, the anti-Trump push continues another couple months.
Ossoff will get killed in the runoff.
Imagine being a woman and voting for Trump.
This might be useful for knowing which states to anticipate might have results on election night.
https://twitter.com/patrickdmarley/status/1316003509549105153
https://twitter.com/robertcahaly/status/1320400700216627207?s=21
The replies here are from people living in a different universe
I mean, he went on Hannity to predict a Trump win. He’s basically positioning himself to be “the one pollster who called 2020 correctly!!11!!11!!one!” in the event that the polls are off and Trump pulls off a miracle.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320377695692296192?ref_src=twsrc^google|twcamp^serp|twgr^tweet
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320381379067215875
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1320386757397983232
What’s the deal with the real clear politics quote about them?
One thing I haven’t seen discussed is whether the 2018 map is more similar to this year than the 2016 map.
In that election, everyone knew who Trump was and that’s why we got the huge turnout (for a non-presidential election) and blue wave.
It’s also 2 years later so more representative of people moving, etc than 2016.
Why wouldn’t that map be more of the baseline for this election?
9 days until the election, Biden is up +9.1 nationally per 538.
9 days until the election in 2016 Clinton was up +4.4 (in the nowcast which is the equivalent of the current polling average)
9 days until the election, 538 model has Biden at 87/12 to win.
9 days until the election in 2016, 538 had clinton 73/27 to win.
I just don’t see the PB stopping the first count of ballots.
If they do that here in Texas ,i feel sure that they would be spending some time in the state prison.
I think most of these types are pretty comfy irl. They aren’t going to throw it all away.
I am in a half full kind of mood today.
Trump loses and not much happens. A few tweets and they spend the remaining time destroying evidence and not governing.
That seems even crazier when i type it out.
Why do NY and AK not start counting mail in ballots until after Election Day? NY count starts on Nov 6 and AK count starts on Nov 10. 