Back to 87/13!
3 Likes
Trafalgar Group? More like Trafalgar Poop!
3 Likes
IBD/TIPP tracking pole back up to Biden +7.
1 Like
Texas is up to 80 percent of 2016 total voter turnout. Yesterday was the first day however where day over day voting actually slowed a bit. Still looks about even money that they’ll hit 100 percent before election day.
3 Likes
The only question is how much if this is the anti trump vote and how much is qanon uneducated white male dipshits?
That poll awhile back where Trump was like 37-52 with 18-34 or w/e still has me worried. IIRC 2018 was like 30-68, so its clear Trump made gains with the younger conspiracy facebook dipshits.
I don’t feel like he can make a ton of gains with the 50+ white racist crowd, weren’t the majority of them already voting for him?
Updates:
Texas: Is now up to 80 percent;
North Carolina: is up to 65 percent. Total Early vote + absentees received is: Democrats 1,255,999, versus Republicans 929,502. That’s a slight narrowing to make it a 15 point edge for democrats instead of 16 points like yesterday, but still looks pretty good with that many votes in. Another 900k no party affiliation which should skew to Biden per polls.
Florida is up to 60 percent of 2016 total vote turnout. The absolute lead is almost exactly the same here for democrats, was 390k votes yesterday, it is 387k votes today. As a percentage of total party affiliated turnout, the dems still hold a roughly 10 point lead. There are still slightly over a million unaffiliated ballots which should lean towards Biden.
Pennsylvania No updates from yesterday.
2 Likes
Not in Texas. Whites of all stripes deplorable af.
Yeah, who knows. No data on the breakdown of early voting. The only known thing here is that Texas is on track to have record-breaking never seen before voter turnout in the modern era.
1 Like
So that pole has Hispanics coming home to Biden then? Otherwise what explains his lead with that demographic breakdown?
Awww wtf
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1320360499071078400
It cannot be understated how fucking piss-poor Trump’s polling in deep red flyover states has been lately. Trump won South Dakota in 2016 by 30 points.
3 Likes
Are we sure that tweet is correct? How can a poll that has Biden losing that badly among whites show a Biden lead in a state that is still majority white? Especially in a likely voter model. Something seems wrong there.
He’s got time to visit all these states multiple times. Imo a massive blowout is necessary for the kind of mandate to do what’s necessary. Run Joe Run
2 Likes
Only 41% of the population is non Hispanic white. According to the poll, Biden is winning 1/3 of them and about 70% of the rest. If turnout was even across ethnic lines, Biden would crush the state. Turnout being disproportionately white means it’s close, but the numbers make sense.
1 Like
Pulling this out of my ass, but I could definitely imagine Rs being deflated and failing to turnout in a runoff if Trump loses.
1 Like
1 Like
Hopefully Trump feels betrayed that Republicans let him down and starts going off on them. Like Mitch not passing a huge Stimulus. if he loses will be blame Mitch for that? We know he won’t blame himself.
1 Like
Whats up with college educated people/college educated white women in Texas though?
College educated women and just white women in general being exactly the same support seems pretty unlikely to me. No way that makes sense in any state.
College educated women actually support Biden by 2% less than white women in general…
makes me not really trust that poll.
