Well, we’re in a Trump presidency, so everything is 2 weeks away.
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National polls were way more accurate than state polls in 2016. They were off by a point on average. If Biden wins by more than 5 points nationally he is a stone cold lock to win the EC.
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Among those who will vote in person on Election Day, 62 percent support Trump and 32 percent support Biden.
Among those who are voting by mail or absentee ballot, 63 percent say they support Biden and 31 percent support Trump.
From here, showing TX tied:
About the only way TX is winnable is by running up the score in early voting. If the early voting share is large compared to the 2016 total, there’s a shot. If it’s the majority of the 2020 Texas total, Texas is going blue.
Texas is one of the most heavily vote-suppressive in the union. You can’t run a GOTV operation that spans more than a single county. Even helping someone to register from the next county over can result in criminal charges. We shouldn’t be seeing a big turnout in TX, because it’s so hard to make happen. The voter turnout increase in TX should basically always be smaller than that in just about any other state. If it’s way up, it’s because of immense individual enthusiasm for voting and almost certainly not a GOTV operation, and that bodes real well, because Trump was basically at his peak voter enthusiasm in 2016, and while many of them are just as enthusiastic, they’re smaller in number this time around.
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New update from PA SOS on returned ballots:
- Dem 1,023,402;
- Rep: 293,318
- Other: 132,680;
So with 8 days left to go Dems have already built up a 730k vote lead. They are leading 78 percent to to 22 percent, so 56 fucking points in ballots so far. They are at 22 percent of 2016 vote totals.
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It’s already at 71 percent with 7 days left to go, so hasn’t this already happenned? Unless you think total turnout in Texas will be more than 142 percent of 2016 totals? With that said, the Q poll you referenced is referencing absentees versus in person on Election Day. What about early votes in person? That’s the vast majority of what’s happenned in Texas so far.
Edit: Yeah, you missed the key statistic from the Q poll: Among those who are voting early live it’s 48 Biden 46 Trump. So I’d say we definitely need to be at or over 100 percent in the next 7 days if we really think Texas is going Blue. It’s possible. Texas has been averaging 5 percent per day.
Oops, my mistake. Well, I guess mail in voting will never be a majority of 2020, but if it outnumbers election day voting, then Biden wins it.
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1319358871731830785
Nate’s projecting turnout up ~13%. Our priors for Texas are that their relative turnout increase should be under that. If it looks like they end up beating that, it’s very good for Biden’s chances.
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Speaking of Texas
https://twitter.com/TexasTribune/status/1318711077484384256?s=20
https://twitter.com/Mizanur_TX/status/1319397785838510081?s=20
Five years ago he was indicted on felony charges of securities fraud, but he has yet to go to trial due to several side battles over procedural issues.
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but what about all of the dems that voted for trump in that group, i heard there was a mass exodus of people fed up with the demon rats party
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Delaware is really just a suburb of Philly.
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This isn’t true.
Statistically Trumpers? Less likely to follow the guidelines?
You mean 1%. Basis points. What a term of malarkey.
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Trump literally called him out in the debate for talking about Scranton being his home town multiple times.
He is still saying it.
This is usually referred to as “being radicalized”.
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I am pretty comfortable in believing that the early voting in Texas is helping democrats more than republicans. Will it flip the state for the presidency? Maybe not but there are likely to be some very interesting results election night.
Silver did an analysis on this, can’t put my fingers on it, but he had Biden at like 98 percent to win the EC if he won the PV by more than 5.
Yeah, it’s pretty much a lock that when they put the initial vote totals up Texas is going to be blue and then we just have to see if enough comes in to turn it red. The same thing happenned with Beto in ‘18.
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Driving yourself out of business to own the libs.
“I made my comments, I made my point, I think I gotta live with it,” he said, adding that his support wasn’t going to change. “If this is gonna cause me losing my store, I’ll run it until Election Day. I’ll run it until the last day.”
We have to do something about these ANTIFAs.
By the way if a Biden administration DOJ doesn’t label right wing extremist groups as terrorists, just LOLUSA.
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I haven’t seen anyone involved with the polling, directly or in aggregate, indicate that they had any kind of handle on early voting and their metrics. This is new data.