There’s also a group of Republicans that refused / didn’t bother to vote for Trump in 2016 that have become convinced that he’s doing a good job and want the Trump era to continue.
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I think the high turnout is less favorable for Democrats than would previously been assumed. Like for example
2014 FL Governor’s race - Turnout 51%, Result R+1
2018 FL Governor’s race - Turnout 63%, Result R+.5
I think if we went back in time to 2014 and said that turnout would massively go up in the 2018 race, there would be an assumption that the Dem would win easily.
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It’s likely the democrats won in 2018
¯_(ツ)_/¯
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i don’t like using the Florida governor’s race in 2018 as an example because he has one trait tha that sets him a part from Joe Biden in Florida, unfortunately.
Apparently Texas doesn’t register party affiliation. in 2016 ~60% of registered voters / 45% of voting aga population actually voted in the presidential election. If more of the 40% of registered voters who did not vote are showing up now, the golden question is what their party preference is.
People from Texas might have the best idea where the surge is coming from.
Ok, substitute the Senate race where the Dem also lost.
Heavy early voting may indicate that likely voter turnout models are incorrect and thus not properly accounted for in the polls, yes.
I also remember many 2+2 people saying that North Carolina’s result was already in due to early voting, and Clinton was an absolute lock to win.
100k daily cases of ‘Rona ain’t nothing. Between now and Election Day that’s a million people who can’t go to the polls because they have the ‘Rona.
I certainly don’t think Biden is a lock to win Texas. But these numbers sure as shit aren’t a bad thing for him.
Trumpers will still go to the polls while dems wont. Which really sucks.
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the early voting by itself doesn’t tell you much, other than votes being locked in. Higher turnout could be significant though.
You think a trumper with 103 fever coughing their brains out and a positive corona diagnosis is making it to the polls?
Some, absolutely, but he’s probably referring more to the ones who have tested positive, but have mild symptoms and head to the polls because it’s just the flu. Actually, flu is worse.
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At a much higher rate than a Dem voter with the same symptoms, yes.
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We are now 11 days out from the general election. The 538 polling Average is Biden +9.8, 52.1 to 42.3
11 Days out from the 2016 election Clinton was up 5.7, 49.6 to 43.9. Biden is doing 4 points better than Clinton was before the Comey letter hit.
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It’s utterly insane to me that the % of undecideds would only be about 100 basis points lower after 4 years of this shit.
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National polls mean nothing. Absolutely nothing.
If you’re looking for optimism, PA polling is more meaningful. Trump has no path to victory without PA.
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Some of that number is “intends to vote for third party” or “isn’t going to vote in the presidential race.”