PA is like Biden’s second home state right? Something something Scranton? He should say “Scranton” more. He used to say it all the time.
Also, PA is literally where Biden was from and his ancestors had lived there since 1851. Biden lived there until he was 9 years old.
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Oh, so Biden turned his back on generations of his family and abandoned Pennsylvania, huh??
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I remember in 2016 in the closing days there were a lot of posts on 2+2 about how Obama states like Ohio and Iowa were “gone” for Clinton. Well, it feels to me like PA is “gone” for Trump:
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Texas is now up to 71 percent of 2016 total vote with a week of early voting left to go. That is fucking insanity. The rate of early voting is actually increasing day over day.
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Welcome to the UP discussion board, friend!
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Do we have any indication this matters, beyond the (probably reasonable) assumption higher turnout is good for Democrats? In states with a Biden / Dem polling lead its good to lock in some number of votes that would have otherwise switched, but Texas doesn’t qualify.
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I’ll give it a shot.
Most likely the early vote is favoring Biden. Something like 5% of people that plan to vote on election day end up not making it to the polls.
I feel like we’ve been 2 weeks from the election for 3 months. It’s March all over again.
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I think that historic voting levels amongst people that don’t normally vote, especially in this election is good for Biden. What do we think is turning out people to the polls that normally never vote and/or have never voted before. Is it:
A. A raging pandemic that has killed a quarter million Americans and the worst economy since the Great Depression touching the lives of every single person in this country in a negative way; or
B. HUNTER BIDENZZZ EMMMAAAILLLZZ!!!111!!ONE1!! SOCIALISM!!! RIOTS IN THE SUBURBS111!!!BURISMA!!!
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High turnout definitely favors Democrats because their demographics are significantly lower turnout than the GOP’s base who turn out no matter what. That’s what the entire GOP national election strategy is about. Driving down average turnout as the GOP raises their effective share of the electorate because their base turns out regardless.
This is why the both sides we’re all dirty narrative plays so well for the GOP… it’s purpose is to convince people to not vote at all rather than to convince people to vote for the GOP. The GOP doesn’t need those people’s votes, they are planning on winning with their core voters being most of the votes cast for them.
Trump was very lucky (or unlucky depending on how you look at it) that his first opponent was HRC. Convincing a lot of people to do something other than vote for her with their time was not hard.
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I get that, I’m just wondering if there is a reliable indication that heavy early voting is somehow not accounted for in polling or indicates democrats will outperform polls.
Agree overall but as a minor devil’s advocate, the let’s call them “the trailer park MAGA crowd” in swing states are also previously low propensity voters that have been highly activated by Trump. Hopefully not enough of them, but they are the reason Trump still has some equity rather than super high turnout = guaranteed Trump blowout.
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You mean the voters Trump already surprised us with in 2016? Yeah they are still going to show up.
I think we are in an era of higher turnout due to negative partisanship (each side being terrified of the other being in power).
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The one thing that seems positive, is that if there’s a huge early vote favoring Dems that’s locked in come November 3, and USA#1 is at 100K daily cases of the 'rona, increasing deaths, hospitals full, etc., and that depresses Election Day turnout, that would seem good for Biden. Of course, the ones who are likely to avoid the polls on 11/3 in that scenario are Biden voters, but maybe the built-in lead is too much to overcome at that point.
I have no idea, and in general, I share the skepticism as to whether there is any meaning in the early vote totals.
The only thing that’s new about that is that Democrats are now as afraid of the GOP as the GOP has been of the Democrats since the ascendancy of Fox News.
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