“of course he’s got to say this, that doesn’t mean he intends to do it“
vs
“ Biden has been saying what is best for his electability without any intimation whatsoever of what he’ll actually do.”
Can you please explain the difference between those two things?
I guess I didn’t word that very well, but here is what I was trying to communicate:
I was narrowly stating that Biden has been saying what’s best for his electability. I, MonsterJMcGee, was not making any pronouncements about what Biden will do in office.
Seriously. Dems probably have full govt control in a couple months. They are going to piss it away with bi-partisan commissions taking 180 days to report on what anyone with a pulse already knows. We are probably 18 months out from having Nate’s model show a red wave bloodbath for dems in the house and little chance of holding the senate. It’s one thing to have a fascist like Trump to fight against, but for all the shit Trump has done, 4 to 8 more years of Obama 2.0 and you won’t be able to see the night sky from all the lawnmowers in orbit.
We are back to 88/12
Ok enough court packing. Some actual horse race news:
Texas now up to 66 percent of 2016 vote totals with 12 days of early voting still to go. TX doesn’t break it down by party registrarion or demographic data so hard to know what exactly is happening but this can’t really be a bad thing.
NC up to 51 percent. NC does break it down and the numbers are fun. I get that we can’t draw definite conclusions here but as we get closer and closer to the total 2016 turnout before we even hit Election Day these inferences are getting stronger:
Dems are beating republicans in early in person voting by 12 points. 702k votes to 560k votes. There are another 476k no party affiliation ballots and 6500 minor party.
Dems are beating republicans in returned absentee ballots by 44 points. 338k to 131k. There are an additional 22k no party affiliations.
Man I don’t know, I really don’t see how this doesn’t add up to a big dem win in NC. Over 50 percent of the total 2016 turnout has already voted and there are 12 days left.
Ha, this idiot doesn’t know that if Biden wins his properties are getting seized and the tenants allowed to occupy rent-free. What a sucker!
They did try to primary Feinstein and she won by over a million votes :/
i guess Trump did the sternly worded letter to the debate commission and left it at that? He knows he can’t duck this one.
Some actual good news to look forward to. It’s basically impossible for the Dems to lose any Senate seats in 2022.
The only Dem seats that might be vaguely competitive:
Arizona (assuming Kelly wins)
Colorado
Nevada
NH
GOP has to defend:
Florida
Iowa
NC
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Wisconsin
Arizona (McSally/Kelly) and Georgia (Loeffler/Collins/Warnock) also going to be up in 2022.
There’s probably a great case study their, what are the factors that lead to AOC succeeding in NY buy Feinstein winning in California? I know that AOC = Generational Talent is part of it, but presumably the real left should be building a playbook around AOCs win and teaching that to every progressive in the country.
Why pretend that’s even a possibility? And when the few people do criticize Biden for bipartisan or right-wing BS, 99% of Dems and 75% of this forum will call them traitors.
Lol u sweet summer child. The dems lost a fucking senate seat in. Massachusetts after Obamacare. Dems don’t vote in midterms when they have the presidency. They are complacent.
AOC’s strategy worked in a district though. It is extremely difficult to move out someone as veteran as DiFi. I know AOC knocked off Crowley, but that’s an exceptional result and she didn’t have to play the entire state.
I don’t think AOC challenging Schumer will work out as well as everyone seems to think, but if it does, it’s only because she is an elite candidate.
I doubt DiFi would lose if she ran again.
AOC will not win statewide. She won a district that is 18% white.
While complacency is certainly a factor, this result was more about the candidate than anything.
Yeah I agree with this. NY is reliably democratic but not super super liberal like the west coast. Our governor is Cuomo and our senators are Gillibrand and Schumer. Cuomo destroyed his primary challenger from the left last time he ran.
Seems like IBD’s likely voter screen is getting rekt by early voters they normally wouldn’t count. That’s just about the only thing that could be causing a shift like that.
I dont think this is true after the election. Speaking for myself, the only reason I ever defend Uncle Joe from attacks from the left is that getting Trump out of office is a priority.
I don’t think complacency is going to be an issue going forward, maybe the intensity lessens slightly once trump is gone but i think the horse is out of the barn and also demographics will continue to get better.