This feels strongly like media driven horse race bullshit to me. Definitely agree that the lyin media would prefer Trump
1 Like
These early voting numbers definitely have implications for the final result. However, it’s not 1:1 and is fairly complex. For example, if the actual votes cast include 60% of 18-34 (highly unlikely), then Trump is donezo and likely voter screens are significantly underestimating turnout. I know the campaigns are comparing actual votes cast to the voter file of all registered voters daily [hopefully this is part of the reason Trump is going full nutso], and there’s potentially a lot that can be gleaned from that number. We’ll be hearing more about that this week I’d imagine.
Trump is not (legit) winning MN.
There is so much adjusting of these numbers. Some have gone overboard trying to chase their 2016 offsets. It’s quasi-science.
1 Like
Let’s remember Trump just lost a head to head ratings battle against Biden.
3 Likes
5% mail-in rejection would be unprecedented (and cuts both ways). Probably at least 5% of the people who don’t vote by mail and intend to vote will not actually vote (emergency, illness, whatever). Take your chances and vote by mail. Confirm your vote was counted online. If it wasn’t, then show up and vote in person. Vote by mail!
I honestly have no idea what MSNBC or CNN are going to do if Biden wins. Their audience is going to decrease by what, half? More? And that Rupar guy is going to be fucked, no one’s going to pay him to post clips of Joe Biden for the next four years. He’s got a baby to feed. Sad!
5 Likes
FL mail votes will be counted by 10-11pm est on election day. It’s fully possible that the election result will be known by 8pm PST.
CA is different because it maximally focuses on counting all votes instead of getting an early clear result, which is what FL seeks to do because of the 2000 debacle.
What did they do when Obama was president? Same thing now only there are more Millennial and Gen Z people and less Silent and Boomer people.
Uh oh. Chachi is unhappy about being recast
8 Likes
Anyone else look at the 538 estimates and just -5% off dem lead in every state to assume the 99% of people still ‘undecided’ just won’t admit to voting Trump (and republican in every election forever)? Dems still have the slightest edge using this approach.
Went on a day trip to Auburn, CA. Not a single mask and 3 different maga hats :(
2 Likes
I have a sister that lives in Michigan that reports the same thing. She is really worried about the election because she only see’s Trump signs.
We might win but we sure af getting covid while doing so
There was also one angry looking dude with a red hat that said make fishing great again. I couldnt tell if it was sarcastic and im unsure who is ruining fishing.
2 Likes
Right now Im just collecting those EDD checks, keep 'em coming.
1 Like
If you post videos on TikTok as you open them, could be a lucrative income stream.
1 Like
Life and politics isn’t going back to “normal” after this election even if Biden wins. There’s more then enough sensationalist crap to show. Court packing. Senate dysfunction. Pandemic. Economy. Yadda yadda yadda.
1 Like
Make fishing great again guy was the 4th, so i’ll put him on undecided
1 Like
So, someone explain to me why this scenario is impossible:
- Biden runs away with NY & California, 30 plus points. Biden lose texas by a point or two and loses florida by a point or two. That’s the 4 most populous states. Biden makes huge inroads into red states like Alaska and South Carolina, losing them by like 5 points each, makes inroads in places like West Virginia, Montana, South Dakota, ND< losing them all of course, but by much smaller margins then normal. Biden loses the midwest again, by just a few points. Biden ends up winning the popular vote by like 11 points because of California/NY and everything else being close but still loses the election. Is this scenario impossible?
1 Like