https://mobile.twitter.com/ThePlumLineGS/status/1318631401336541186
2 Likes
A) How the fuck does Biden gain 9 points in the Midwest and lose 2.9 points overall?
B) How the fuck do you mess up a tracking poll on a day-to-day basis? The way you mess those up is by getting a bad sample to start with.
This, please and thanks.
Minnesota is 84% white (includes some Hispanic/Latino) and only 5.7% black. It could be in play if the trends from 2012 → 2016 in the shifting of the parties based on racial motivations continued, which is a quite reasonable consideration.
Hillary only won it 46.44% to 44.92%.
One thing that’s happening with this realignment based on white racial grievance is that Democrats gain among minorities, and Republicans gain among whites. So the GOP gains in a place like Minnesota, and loses in a place like Georgia. But Georgia is going to the mattresses with voter suppression and Democrats in Minnesota are going half-assed for fairness.
Asymmetrical political warfare.
Counter point: in the 2019 general election in Philadelphia, the naked ballot rate was 6% - those are all getting rejected this year. You’d expect off-year voters to be more experienced voters, so a lot of people fear the number could be as high as 10%.
The 538 average in PA is 50.6 to 44.2. If 75% of Dems and 25% of Republicans vote by mail, and both have a 10% rejection rate, that’s:
50.6 * .75 = 37.95 * .1 = 3.795%
44.2 * .25 = 11.05 * .1 = 1.105%
That would bring the totals down to 46.8% to 43.1%. So Biden goes from +6.4% to +3.7%, pulling him well within the margin of error.
So 5% would not be unprecedented, and given the disparity in the mail-in vote it would not cut both ways equally.
Their audience is going to crater either way. Fuck if I’m going to keep watching the news as we descend into Dante’s Inferno. I’ll turn that shit off and try to help people at-risk locally.
It’s not impossible, but it’s pretty unlikely. Once he gets above like +7.5% give or take, it’s pretty hard to keep gaining without moving ahead in MI/PA/WI/AZ/NC/FL.
I sometimes speculate that the likely worst-case scenario is what we saw with Bernie vs Biden, except this time it will be Trump with the early lead and Biden once again coming in with devastating numbers as the final tallies are made. This of course ignores concerns about riggage.
But I think the more likely outcome is that the numbers never leave any doubt who is going to win.
Trump2020
It’s very unlikely he gets to +10 nationally without picking off a fair number of purple states, but it’s on the table in terms of possibility.
EDIT: My pony is on the glue factory table.
Some people really need a day off. Trump has a small, small chance to win but he’s not winning Minnesota. If you’re concerned about that, its already over, bet the farm on Trump etc.
3 Likes
Texas up to 52 percent of it’s total 2016 turnout, 2 weeks before the election.
2 Likes
It’s over. No need to worry.
https://twitter.com/kylegriffin1/status/1318665796927848450?s=21
12 Likes
this is more convincing to me than any poll. trump is finished
4 Likes
https://twitter.com/ElectProject/status/1318608683362848768?s=20
If 5M vote per day for the next 13 days, that 65M more votes before election day. Even 3M per day would mean 74M total early votes. Expected turnout is 150-160M.
Hmm. What do we think? The video is really bad for Trump and he is trying to reverse psychology CBS into not showing it?
Or he thinks it looks good for him but it really looks really bad.
1 Like
This is the best advertising for a TV episode I’ve ever seen
6 Likes
Honestly it’s entirely possible he threw a temper-tantrum and left before anything devastating happened. The lol part is that he stormed out, not necessarily that there was anything crazy going on during it.
1 Like
Clearly just was asked to just answer a question after he was originally asked a question and rambled on about Hunter Biden or something. Dude can’t take any criticism
1 Like
“I’ve never seen a campaign more mis-calibrated than the Trump campaign. Frankly, his staff ought to be brought up on charges of political malpractice,” Luntz said.
“It is the worst campaign I’ve ever seen and I’ve been watching them since 1980. They’re on the wrong issues. They’re on the wrong message. They’ve got their heads up their assess. … Your damn job is to get your candidate to talk about things that are relevant to the people you need to reach. And if you can’t do your damn job then get out.”
“Nobody cares about Hunter Biden … why is [Trump] spending all his time on him?” Luntz asked. “Hunter Biden does not help put food on the table. Hunter Biden does not help anyone get a job. Hunter Biden does not provide health care or solve COVID. And Donald Trump spends all of his time focused on that and nobody cares.”
“If Donald Trump doesn’t score a knockout then there’s not enough campaigning or mindshare to give him a chance to catch Joe Biden,” Luntz said.
If anyone actually thinks Trump is going to win MN, I’m happy to book at the current PredictIt price of 3:1.
1 Like
I got one, too.
CALIFORNIA
Trump 100% (+100)
Biden 0%
@WookiePoals, 30ish LV signs seen in the Central Valley along I-5, conducted 10/19
3 Likes
He’s trying to get out in front of it. Narcissists believe that whoever has the stronger frame wins.
Who knows if it’s really that bad? No one cares if the question was devastating. What will make him look like a Grade A Idiot is him storming out. In fact, he will look like an even bigger idiot if he stormed out after a nothing question.
But that’s likely if you ask me. Nothing out of the ordinary, just Trump desperate to project strength in the most pathetic way possible.
1 Like