I mean, I doubt Trump even wins the in-person voting in NY. He’s down by 30 points there.
not sure how this would ever happen really,
i dont think anyone needs to worry about his attendance at rallies, he goes to a city and gets a few thousand people to show up for free to see the president, i mean its not hard to fill those seats.
how the world with all these eh shit polls do we get Rasmussen going, well Ohio is in play.
That’s been my take on CA and NY for awhile, but every time I bring it up people think I’m crazy. I’m not saying he’ll necessarily succeed but I think he’s laying the ground work… Imagine an election night where he’s up 60-40 in Pennsylvania, like 55-45 in WI/MI, 55-45 in NY, 52-48 in CA. He’ll claim victory in a landslide, try to shut down vote counting and scream FRAUD FRAUD FRAUD while taking what he can get from the courts he packed and inciting violence from the Proud Boys and such.
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I’m as paranoid as anyone about this stuff, but no one is going to accept NY going red.
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at the risk of sounding like sklsky, if you gave trmp all the polls we see now and,
a) changing strat (lol pivoting) and actually win voters with 50% chance of success,
b) cheating the recount to steal it with 25% chance of success,
a NPD pres who still rationally chooses (a), right?
now change scenario to,
A) (a) + in case of a loss, 1% chance of whining his way through courts to steal it,
B) (b) + in case of a loss, 5% chance of capturing the office via a violent insurrection,
trmp is snapping B before even looking at polls, right?
nevermind me, i’m just sitting here dreading the meals in internment camps. WAAF.
I agree it has been a strategic blunder, but I also admit that Trump was hitting them from both sides of the issue and they were between a rock and a hard place.
Discourage mail-in voting: SEE??? THE EVIL DEMS KNOW IT’S SAFE TO VOTE IN PERSON AND THE PANDEMIC IS A HOAX, AND THEY KNOW VOTER FRAUD IS VERY REAL!!! Also you lose some percentage of voters who would have voted by mail but are scared to go in person.
Encourage mail-in voting: All the problems you pointed out, and Trump attacks on voter fraud.
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one thing that is for sure in all this nonsense, ITS ABSURD THAT WE HAVE TO SWEAT AN ELECTION WITH A 10% AVERAGE LEAD IN THE POLLS thats been SUPER STEADY AT LEAST +6% BECAUSE OF THIS SHIT SYSTEM WE HAVE
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? It seems trivially easy to have an overseas printing shop make a bunch of, say, Wisconsin ballots that look nearly identical, vote straight ticket Dem, and mail them in to some county with republican leadership. They won’t have correct bar codes for the voters, and so they won’t be counted, but there will be news stories about them and that’s the ballgame.
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If he’s down 65-35, and 75% of Dems and 25% of Republicans vote by mail then on election day it’s:
D 16.25 to R 26.25
That’s a 62-38 Trump blowout on election night.
If 60% of Dems vote by mail vs 25% of Republicans, it’d be D 26 to R 26.25, or 50.5 to 49.5 GOP.
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Can someone tell me why Mail in Ballets that are already received can’t be counted as soon as election day starts? Why are in person votes counted first?
Is this just a USA #1 thing even tho its really dumb?
i think they can be counted everywhere as soon as election day starts, just not before, it would help if they could before.
A Trump operative lives in Philadelphia and requests a mail-in ballot. He makes 5,000 photocopies, fills them out straight Dem, and ships them in a box.
<5% chance they’re counted
100% chance it’s a major news story that let’s Trump rail on voter fraud the rest of the campaign and get a great deal of traction
it depends on state. some start on the day, some when polls close.
The regular in person votes are counted as they go. The mail-in votes have to be processed: removed from an envelope (or two), signature checked, stacked up to feed into a machine.
It takes longer to count each vote, and laws vary by state.
Trumpers are going to whine about election fraud regardless of what Dems do, this is a poor reason to not stress mail-in voting.
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Muting thread for sanity reasons. Next to nothing of value being posted + premature catastrophizing = bad feels for your pal smrk. It’s not going to get any easier until they start counting the mail in votes on/after the 3rd and then we’ll know. If B can bink FL on election night to end the drama that would be nice, but that was never anything anyone should have pinned their hopes to. Between PI and 538, low 60% sleepy gets Florida, that’s likely as good as it’s going to get.
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Tweets like this are starting to irk me more than bad Biden polls.
Who cares? So what? What does it mean for potential election results? Oh, we don’t really know? So why bother talking about it so much? There seems to be this tacit conclusion that this is great for D’s, but I don’t see it that way at all.
(I think it’s fine that you posted it…I’m just seeing so much of this and it seems so meaningless).
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Yeah it’s a tough spot. I think the party needed to be honest with the public: you should vote in person wherever possible, because the Republican Party is organizing a concerted effort to invalidate mail in ballots. Run get out the vote ads that are montages of the various efforts to remove mail sorting machines, the various court rulings from republican appointed judges, and quotes from Trump, and make it clear what’s at stake.
I’m just very worried that we’ll spend the next few years talking about this in the same way we talk about Hillary not campaigning in the Midwest - just a blindingly stupid mistake that is crystal clear in hindsight.
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