Just the way these things work. It is extremely unlikely there is such a stable race for months and months. Nate or someone had an article about how odd it had been so far.
Biden having 3 dark campaign days with two weeks to go is giving me Hillary flashbacks. I realize he is probably doing debate prep but I’m not sure you want to be this far out of the spotlight this close to the election.
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I’m so fucking pissed I have to sweat this. I feel like I’m being psychologically tortured.
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The thing tilting me most about PA isn’t polling. It’s that their Supreme Court decided that this little slip of paper, which isn’t even fking needed, suddenly must be included in all mail-in ballots and, if it’s not, the entire otherwise-legal-and-proper ballot is null and void. It’s the most arbitrary bunch of nonsense I’ve ever seen, and it’s going to cost some nonzero % of people in that state their votes for no logical reason whatsoever.
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The thing you should be most concerned with about PA is that Trump is going to be up huge on election night before the mail-in ballots are counted. All kinds of hell is going to break loose if Biden takes the lead a few days later and PA is the difference in the election.
Arizona is looking like a must-win with PA NC and FL tightening. Biden should be pouring money in there.
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This is why spending money on fucking Iowa and Ohio was such a god damn waste. Nothing was learned from 2016.
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I saw something yesterday that ad spend in Arizona was ~$32 million for Biden and ~$20 million for Trump
Hard to believe Kelly/Cunningham are going to win by 5-10% while Trump wins each state. The divergent polling for each of those seems pretty off. I just have no idea in which direction.
Biden still pretty big favorite to win AZ IMO. NC not so much.
I wouldn’t lump them together.
I get spending some money in states with winnable senate races like Ohio and Iowa, especially since Biden has so much money. But Texas / Ohio are literally lighting money on fire. I know, I know, winning state houses blah blah blah. That was never happening in those two states.
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Yeah, you’re right. I just looked again at NC senate polls and they’re much closer than I remembered. No ridiculous 49/39 polls like AZ senate.
I legit have no idea how the polling with Kelly and Trump is so far off
I think a decent amount of it has to do with people in AZ being excited to vote for Kelly, while in NC no one wants to vote for Cunningham. Reverse coattails effect on the Presidential election.
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When you have a big fundraising advantage it can be useful in forcing the other side to also burn cash in those places too, though, and they need it more elsewhere than we do. It’s not as bad as it would be if we’re turning over sofa cushions for ad moneyz.
Didn’t Trump have no money and basically do nothing in 2016? Like way less than he has this time?
He had daily rallies covered wall to wall by every cable news outlet. He doesn’t exactly have that this time.
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I think he still does? Maybe I’m wrong but pretty sure all of his rallies are still being covered. Understand the point that they probably have a lot fewer viewers, though.
I think only Fox News covers them