+9. How much down is that from their last poll? It was +11 right? I guess national polls don’t matter, but if thats a general trend of swingstates tightening I don’t like it.
Overall a lot less tightening than I expected, but anything other than Biden running away with it would have me stressed.
Some good stuff there, but I also don’t put a lot of weight into what policies people support. I have PTSD flashbacks of like 72% of voters supporting medicare for all then pulling the lever for Biden. I’m sure a lot of those people think Trump is going to give the the public option/Yuge stimulus deal.
56% of women being very unfavorable to Trump and his advantage on the economy being gone is solid though
Derp. I need caffeine lol.
I guess Sienna wasn’t one of the super hyped polls we had. Looking at this gave me the sads. Lindsey probably safe unless like some people are saying pollsters are massively underestimating dem turnout, but even that might be equalized with how many mail in ballots get tossed without shenanigans.
https://twitter.com/SienaResearch/status/1316800572285165568
I would think it’d be possible to check likely voter and turnout models vs actual voters now. It’d be a complex analysis, because it’s a nonrepresentative sample, but I’d think it’s doable to an extent. Haven’t seen any articles on this yet.
No, their last national poll was in September and it was +8. Week of September 22-24. So this one is an improvement.
Is it too early to start checking weather forecasts and using “one-times” for massive storms on Election Day?
New ABC/WaPo poll of North Carolina
Biden 49, Trump 48 among likely voters
Bien 48, Trump 47 among registered voters
I’m really not liking a lot of these polls posted recently.
The rate of Vince memes has really slowed.
People really, really, really need to stop paying attention to national polls.
If Trump wins PA, NC and FL, that’s the ballgame and our country is done. The latter two are coin flips and PA is within the margin of error.
It was inevitable the race would tighten. I assume no one thought Biden would maintain such a huge lead through election day.
I posted this map months ago and was mocked for it. It is increasingly likely.
If by increasingly likely you mean it’s gone from a probability of 0.5% to like 0.7%.
Why? Was it a foregone conclusion that Trump would improve as a president/human being in the month before the election or something else?
