Maybe try melting up because Biden has the ~same chance to win your new home state or Mississippi as he does of losing PA according to 538. The worst Biden poll in PA is +2 from Trafalgar, like add 5 points to that.
The situation is made worse by a superior GOP ground game. Virus denial is undeniably good for knocking on doors.
as he notes the post above, he’s referring to the GOP potential in new voters
I’m not reading those two paragraphs the same way you are reading those two paragraphs. This says eligible voters. Not registered voters.
That doesn’t read like they’re talking about non-college educated whites who have newly registered, but rather just how many there are to possibly target. Am I interpreting that incorrectly?
What makes you think the 2.4 million uneducated white folks who didn’t bother to vote in 2016 are voting in 2020? Also Biden is doing better among non-college whites than Clinton.
It’s a concern, but there’s literally no analyst saying it’s dispositive in any way yet.
Is PA not one of the states where we know what new voter regs look like since 2016?
ETA from the article:
Recent figures from Pennsylvania elections officials show that Republicans have added 174,000 voters since 2016, while Democrats lost 31,000.
Democrats said they were focused on mobilizing existing voters rather than registering new ones, but they also pointed to data from TargetSmart, a Democratic polling firm, suggesting that newly registered voters in Pennsylvania were more likely to vote Democrat than Republican.
Brendan Welch, a spokesman for the Pennsylvania Democratic Party, said that Republicans’ gains could be traced to voters who were previously registered as Democrats but who had voted Republican for years, and cited Republican registration increases in counties that Trump carried in 2016.
“These are mostly the kind of folks who have been registered Democrats since the days of Jimmy Carter versus Gerald Ford, but who have been voting Republican since the days of George Bush versus Al Gore,” Welch said.
Maybe you guys are right. Republicans are +100k registrations in PA since 2016. For some reason I have it in my head that Trump won PA in 2016 in spite of moderate turnout among non college whites. Maybe I’m wrong on that.
final debate is the perfect time to speak uninterrupted about his son’s drug problems. hunter is doing long interviews with the atlantic, joe wouldn’t be throwing him under the bus. and it’s a good opportunity to connect with tens of millions of families who can relate.
meanwhile trump’s response would be, “i low key encouraged my big brother’s alcoholism to usurp his rightful inheritance by male primogeniture”
I don’t understand the disconnect between the national and state polls at this point. Biden up +11 nationally but only up +6 in PA right now is nuts. One or the other of those is wrong. Still, for Trump to win right now the national polls would need to be wrong by about 8 points. Seems pretty unlikely.
Well that’s good for costing me about 25 hours of sleep between now and 11/3.
Lol as if trump knows what primogeniture means.
it might be? PA is 82% white and Hillary was +2 nationally.
National numbers aren’t uniform across states/areas from some dem senators getting bopped compared to polling even in the 18 wave.
Could you tone it down like 5%? You’re a good poster, but posts like this are completely dumb and out of line.
Is he, though?
https://www.instagram.com/p/CGiai3nHu9f/?utm_source=ig_web_copy_link
“WHAT THE F—!” he said. “(VOTE ForTRUMP) IM OUT, F— NEW YORK,” adding “The KNICKS never win anyway.”
“I don’t care Trump doesn’t like black people,” he continued, “62% are you out of ya f—ing mind.”
26 million followers
Have a link confirming grizzle is dead?