https://twitter.com/RobertCahaly/status/1318210619049496577
https://twitter.com/restorationpac/status/1318235209712701446
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Trashalagar does make a few good points, trumpers aren’t answering calls from pollsters as much so it’s harder to gauge true numbers, polls ask too many questions so only those super engaged or bored as shit all day answer when whoever wins those people who aren’t paying any attention and/or are too busy is who wins the elections.
It’s a shit pollster though. They had MI/PA -4/-5 in 2016 for Trump and claimed victory as the best pollster after he barely won those states. Like betting ML and the spread and crowing about winning the ML bet while losing the other one. 2018, Kemp +12 in GA, NV was amazingly bad, etc.
Basically if biden is leading in their polls, this is still good, but I think they are closer in that we’re not going to see blowout numbers. It’s why I’ve been pretty hard keeping IA/OH in the R column rather than what most are doing.
Maybe it’s because I lost a little too much last presidential election or remembering that 538 seriously thought donnelly was gonna win. We’ll see if I made a huge error or not I suppose.
and they’re gambling too, if they’re right, they’re the new 538 in the public view. if not oh well everyone goes back to ignoring them.
idk if PA is planning to post results or not while they’re churning vote counting but if so trump will be leading PA on election day.
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https://twitter.com/ppollingnumbers/status/1318256265974382593?s=21
All gotta just vote and it won’t be close.
All this sort of stuff doesn’t matter at all though.
In this country, we count ALL the votes. Always have, always will.
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As the presidential campaign heads into its final weeks, Republicans hope that gains in voter registration in the three states — Florida, North Carolina and Pennsylvania — and heavy turnout by those new party members might just be enough to propel Mr. Trump to a second term.
“The tremendous voter registration gain by the Republicans is the secret weapon that will make the difference for the Republicans in 2020,” said Dee Stewart, a Republican political consultant in North Carolina.
…
In data released last week by the Florida secretary of state’s office, Republicans had narrowed the registration chasm with Democrats to 134,000 out of 14.4 million voters — fewer than 1 percent. In 2016, when Hillary Clinton, the Democratic nominee, lost the state to Mr. Trump, Democrats held a 330,000-voter advantage.
…
“I think Democrats were somewhat hopeful that there were going to be more felons that regained voting rights and actually registered,” he said. “That ended up not being a huge boost.”
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Recent figures from Pennsylvania elections officials show that Republicans have added 174,000 voters since 2016, while Democrats lost 31,000.
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I have a lot of family and friends on Facebook from Pennsylvania. Every single one of them loves Trump. I’m honestly baffled PA is supposed to go blue.
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This is my worry. Know a few people who never voted but love our celebrity clown show because he sticks it to the man. Hope they punch their ballots wrong…
You’d think that they’d figure out the election rules a bit sooner than late October.
Yeah this is definitely worrisome. Someone posted a take about how this is really just trump voters switching to Republican from independent or democrat but I dont believe it. This is a bunch of new voters who love the racism, conspiracy theories, or think covid is a hoax.
Knowing Republicans and knowing this election is everything they’re probably using every trick in the book.
There was also a poll that showed 18-35 was like 36-54 for biden which is a huge gain for trump.
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Based upon how heavily early the dems are voting right now it’s not at all clear that this necessarily even benefits the republicans. Late mail could skew republican. This could be a huge self own.
Also 10% of mail ballots getting tossed for being done wrong is a huge issue not factored into polls. Now I’m stressing this election hard again
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This is also a widening lead for Biden in yougov.
Toobin?
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Go do a Jeffrey.
too soon?
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No wayyyyy
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I’m not sure that’s a good idea. The running count will leak out to the public or at least certain interested parties. That information could have adverse effects like depressing turnout.
There shouldn’t even be polls X days before the election until all the polls are closed.