Pollster Who Predicted 2016 Win Predicts Another Trump Victory
glorious
“Just as they did in 2016, most political professionals are predicting that Biden will win the election.”
Can you spot the error in the first sentence of the article? The article is about Trafalgar and shy Trump voters.
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Ban the poster called “annoyed”. He has six posts, each of three words or less. Maybe a bot, or Russian who doesn’t speak English well. Clear troll in any case.
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I don’t know how this message tagged me, I can’t ban folks anymore, sad.
Sixteen Days until the election and:
- Biden leads Trump 10.7 points in the GE per 538 tracker;
- Biden +9 per RCP average;
- Biden at 88/12 in the 538 model to win;
- Biden at 91/9 in the Economist model;
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317783782838145024
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317784017148743680
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1317784665353277443
My mom is also a never Trump republican who is convinced Biden was propped up to beat Trump and isn’t going to serve out his term. She thinks Kamala is one of the most radical left senators there is. I asked her to name one policy position that was radical and all she could muster was “that’s just what I’ve heard”. She says it would be a disaster if Dems had full contrbol of govt. She acts like voting in this election is a moral dilemma on par with deciding which one of your kids lives and which one dies (I’m an only child lol).
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To be fair to these never trumper moms who are still conservative… they are kinda right. Obviously they get their through conspiracy theories and not logic because they’re conservatives, but they still get there. If dems sweep high enough, say 54 or 55 senators, we’re looking at possible court packing, DC and Puerto Rico added, and plenty of good legislation that will make it way harder for conservatives to win power back. Even though Biden is super conservative I think most dems realize its do or die for them before another fascist gets control with a 6-3 supreme court.
So they aren’t really wrong that if dems get full control it might be GG for conservatives for awhile. Obviously they’re horribly wrong that it would be a bad thing, and they’re super wrong that electing Trump would be better for them, but they aren’t exactly wrong that a big dem landslide would be really bad for the conservative movement. They also probably don’t realize it swings both ways, if Trump wins its trumpism going forward for the rest of their lives. Or they do and they prefer that to moderate democrats.
Like Yeah Joe is basically a Republican, but I think he will just do what dem leadership wants and dem leadership is going to want fix the country before they become a minority party, they really don’t have a choice.
Some of them might even realize that if another Trump like candidate gets control with a 6-3 supreme court they could personally be in danger. You know if Biden wins the right is going to go nuts, and if they get control back they’re going to want shit like Obamas, Bidens, Kamala etc in jail and if they can lock in power its a possibility.
Even the Nancy and Schumer types gotta realize how dangerous it would be to give power back to Republicans with 6-3 with the way the Republican party is headed, and its not coming back from crazy.
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Jake Tapper often goes way too easy on people on his show but I think he did a pretty good job with Lara Trump just now. Granted, she was giving a bunch of clown answers that my kids could have dismantled.
Without going overboard like we’d all like to see, Jake done a decent interview for once.
I liked the question on Trump tests “Did the president submit a clear test 72 hours before the debate” “So you didn’t wear masks the whole time either, alough you were asked by the debate staff”.
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God I really think we’re getting out of control with the whole “Biden landslide, Dems win sweeping Senate majority, add tons of SCOTUS justices, PR and DC now states!” thing. I really don’t think any of that stuff is going to happen. If Biden wins, it’s going to be a squeaker. If the Dems take the Senate, it’s going to be by a tiny margin. I just don’t see some liberal fantasyland where its universal healthcare and court packing and you get a state and you get a state! Arrgh every day I read this stuff and am more and more convinced that we’re setting ourselves up for huge disappointment when Lucy pulls the football away. Again. I know, I know. Pessimism is ugly. Lo siento.
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I don’t mean to be blithe or trivialize it (I can’t remember the word I’m looking for here), but I don’t understand these relationships. I assume your mom is over 60? What happens when you say “Mom, look, it’s my (and my kids’?) future, I’m really well educated on this stuff, and if you love me you’ll change your mind or at least sit this one out.”
I guess I’m not really asking you specifically, @Koss, I’m more just curious about this dynamic in general. (ETA I just realized I misread the first line of your post in which you said she’s Never Trump. But she’s still torn about whether or how to vote, right?)
Thinking it through, I guess I wouldn’t budge if I was older and my kid was a Trump stan, but I’d also probably sadly think my son was an idiot in that case.
I guess I’m lucky my parents are like the caricature Bay Area MSNBC-binging lefties.
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this seems really, really bad for trump
I think you’re right unfortunately. I think the absolute minimum the Dems would have to get done in a potential first two years of a Biden admin with a friendly Senate, would be stuff like a new Voter Rights Act, maybe an Election Day national holiday, some wholesome-looking stuff that will help voter turnout and benefit them immensely, while also being really hard to paint as an evil socialist power grab by the other side. That should hopefully help stabilize things for a while.
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Buttigieg less impressive here (though not terrible or anything):
https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1317841092704952320
But I actually think he’s is coming close to articulating an answer that would satisfy enough people, that might get the media tired of asking about it, and that Joe Biden would be willing to say. Basically something like:
"Look, one thing that needs to be addressed is the radical politicization of the judiciary and the Supreme Court in particular. It’s a trend that both sides have been slowly pushing but that this administration, along with McConnell, has put on steroids. The breaking of norms when it came to Merrick Garland and the jamming through of ACB are two of the most egregious examples but not the only ones.
So, yes, I’m interested in judicial reform, and I would want it to be thoughtful and bipartisan. Yes, adding justices could be an option, though that couldn’t and wouldn’t simply be up to me; it’s not just an executive decision. But “court packing” is a hysterical term used by Trump to change the subject from the fact that he’s been doing his best to pack the courts for four years."
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Yeah I’m not predicting a liberal fantasyland. Like Biden admin isn’t doing universal healthcare or any progressive legislation. They will likely do court packing, adding states, and voting rights reform simply because they have too. I mean even fucking Pete was pushing for that stuff. They will still suck ass, give shitty healthcare, benefit corporations and not do much to help the poor, but they will likely do stuff to fix the supreme court riggage and voting suppression because they basically have too.
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317841522751098880
https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1317844073093484546
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the new supreme court likely strikes all that down as unconstitutional. You absolutely have to pack the court to get anything done because the conservative court is legitimately terrible and will do anything to keep conservatives in power.
I mean they already gutted the previous voting rights act, you think they will let a new one slide?
The new supreme court will legit strike down anything that will make it more likely for democrats to gain more power. They already did it with 5-4, with 6-3 it will be even more insane. We either pack the court or become a fascist theocracy.
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