What I mean is that he can’t do it single-handedly by simply issuing an order or whatever. If you’re envisioning armies of lawyers and bunches of court cases, sure. But that’s a process that’s going to work out slowly in hundreds if not thousands of jurisdictions.
If you’re envisioning a scenario where the Supreme Court issues an order halting the counting of all absentee ballots nationwide, I find that pretty implausible. And even if it happens, it may be too late.
All he needs are his own appointees to rule the counting must stop until the case is ruled on, and he’s off to the races.
He had a long diatribe about this on his podcast last night. Basically said he gives zero fucks as it’s not his fault if trump goes runner runner. It’s math.
Ds are just really motivated to get their vote in and counted early this year it seems.
I wonder why? Could it be that the President promising to steal it if it’s even a little bit close is the single most powerful motivation to turn out since at least 1900? No way!
Hopefully all of this early voting doubly fuels turnout in the populous areas by reducing election day wait times.
Do you think this scenario is likely? I think you’re overestimating the appetite of even Trumpy judges for injecting themselves into the election.
I’d be willing to bet that no swing state stops counting ballots statewide in response to a court order prior to certification.
I generally think you are right but that seems like a really bad bet. It’s a lock at least one nuts trump judge makes this ruling.
I mean he’s drawing very live. These Trumpy federal courts have already made plenty of atrocious rulings.
He’s obviously right, but his site will be pretty much dead in comparison to today.
I think he got widely recognized for a relatively meaningless accomplishment (getting all 50 states ‘right’) so he knows people only care about a binary result
For sure it would be really bad for his site but that is not because he did anything wrong. It’s because people are really bad at probability.
That being said, if trump wins the fate of 538 will be the least of my concerns!
He’s had some god awful models/predictions since going to 538. The worst still was probably his 2014 world cup model which had Brazil (probably the 5th or such best team) as over 50% to win going into the tournament. They famously lost 7-1 to Germany.
You’d need a small field and a team like Canada 2010 to be over 50% for a tournament
I don’t know enough about soccer to know if this is a Canadian insult or compliment. 
I mean you can say a sharp take was that Brazil was overvalued, but they were definitely not the 5th best team according the market.
50% is lol obv
I assumed he was talking about hockey in that part.
Mostly because the markets overvalued home field as well, just not as much as Nate. Holland/France/Belgium would have done the same to Brazil that the Dutch did in 2010.
All I know about Canadian soccer is we’re the biggest worst country! No country bigger than us is worse.
Yeah, I meant the men’s Olympic team in 2010 as the rare team that could be even odds in a KO tournament before play begins. Brazil was nowhere near that in talent.
Canada should qualify for the 2022 world cup though, they have 2 players better than the best Mexican star.
Why does 538 have
PA-88% going Biden
MI-91% going Biden
WI-88% going Biden
I thought these states were toss up?
Isn’t our women’s team good? I’ve never watched soccer in my life.