Nate silver gonna be homeless if trump wins
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More likely a camp or jail.
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Recovering didn’t get him a bounce. Perhaps he should have tried not recovering.
It’s a lot less work, he oughta give it a try.
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Gotta admit, I did not think we’d be sitting on a Biden +10.6 with 17 days left to go.
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Same I’m amazed he hasn’t got a huge bounce from recovering.
Seems like at this point we just need to make sure everyone stays motivated to vote and we fade cheating.
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Also so far does not seem like the Hunter Biden “buthisemaillllzzz” gambit is doing anything.
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Today is Saturday, October 17th. We are HOLY FUCK THERE IS A SPIDER CRAWLING ON MY LAPTOP
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Anyway, today is Saturday October 17th, we are 17 days away from the election. So far, 17 days out:
- In Texas 38 percent of the 2016 total vote has already voted;
- In FL: 25 percent of the 2016 total vote has already voted;
- In Maine: 29 percent;
- In Georgia: 32 percent;
- In North Carolina: 26 percent;
- In Arizona: 22 percent;
- MIchigan: 29 percent
- Wisconsin: 29 percent
- Minnesota: 31 percent;
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Do we have figures on what is expected to be counted by like midnight on election night in various states? I’m currently most worried about Trump claiming victory off the election day vote and before the mail-in vote is counted, stopping the counting, and putting down the protests very hard.
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He will definitely do [1], he might be able to do [3], but he can’t do [2].
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That scenario seems less and less likely:
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478024745451520
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317478026301657089
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317479070846881793
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317479740106854401
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317481809538617347
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317482429444247553
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1317483115800133633
Who’s going to stop him? Amy Coney Barrett?
What is Nate blathering on about?
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The Supreme Court was able to do that in 2000.
You would have to do the math state by state. PA can’t start even opening mail-in ballots until 7am Election Day, so it’ll be tough to get those counted in time.
17 days to go and I’m still legit scared. Despite a double digit national lead. It’s like being told I just got Covid. Yeah, chances are I will end up being OK…
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Why are early in person voters D? Is that just covid related (sounds dumb given the lines) or its historically tha way?
It was not historically that way. It is likely related to COVID and the fact that D’s are more likely to treat it more seriously than R’s, and because Trump has been telling his supporters for months that mail in ballots are fraudulent. It could also reflect increased enthusiasm amongst D’s.