Cannot express enough how much this can backfire on him. Not only is it likely the pandemic is getting worse in the next three weeks depressing in-person turnout, but like, people are less likely to vote in person if it’s raining.
Edit: My pony ran Bob Russell’s campaign.
My point is that if Abrams ever was seriously close to the nomination I think and (because we don’t live in a perfect world) I also hope that the Biden campaign considered how Abrams will be perceived by the electorate.
All other things being equal I think a VP Abrams will probably lose the Dems a small percentage of the vote compared to Harris because of her darker skin tone, her hair, her teeth gap, her weight etc.
That’s the world we live in and ignoring that increases the risk of losing the election. One doesn’t get points for being a righteous loser.
And then the Mayor resigned.
It’s apples and oranges. There are a whole lot of reasons why 2020 is significantly different than 206 and most of them go against Trump.
Election day is more than two weeks away, but already more than 1 million Californians have returned their mail-in ballots, according to the state, an amount that dwarfs the number submitted at this point four years ago. This marks the most ballots collected by mail at this point in any California election.
Nearly half of the mail-in ballots come from Los Angeles County, where about 435,00 voters have already sent in their ballots, according to the L.A. County registrar-recorder’s office.
I think you’re overthinking. Biden has a shitload of money, and campaign spending has diminishing returns. Sure he could dump it all in MI/PA/WI but my guess is they are so saturated in the Midwest there is no ev to be gained with more spending. TX is demographically disparate from the Midwest, so it’s another path for him to win. Biden winning TX but losing PA isn’t so far fetched that it’s a reasonable use of surplus $.
In 16 there was a massive “how bad could he be” and “boy let’s have some fun” among the undecideds. Those people essentially no longer exist.
From undecideds I have talked to recently most all of them are really uninformed and disinterested and their primary issue is all politicians suck. This seems to indicate many undecideds will not vote at all.
In the meantime I have worked hard to get all of them to go with Biden without them thinking I am Charlie Brown’s teacher.
abrams on the tickets quite possibly ships GA and hopefully Biden still pulls out WI/MI/PA/FL on his own
There are differences, but for some stuff, no one really knows the impact, and other differences (particularly COVID) are already baked into the models.
What I see is highly biased observers trying to outsmart Nate’s model. People did the same thing in 2016, in some of the same ways “look at all this early voting, X county in NC has never seen this kind of turnout.” Adanthar’s “journo twitter” was my favorite.
Imo, expert opinion, anecdotes from the battleground states, early voting, it’s mostly noise. The model knows better than any person. That other stuff is like reading Super System when you have a solver.
A lot of posts ITT are tongue in cheek. If anything, I think the forum consensus is that the 538 model overstates Biden’s chances, because it only accounts for a historically average level of cheating by the other side.
Adanthar, over and above the Princeton Election Shitshowrium and whoever else, is why I will not believe anything until the votes are counted and races are called.
https://twitter.com/thehill/status/1316484953945894912?s=19
Poll shift toward Trump incoming as soon as people hear about this
How mail in votes are counted
First, they take the dinglebop, and they smooth it out with a bunch of schleem.
That depends when everything gets counted. My fear is Trump could have some weird big leads on election night. If he’s -7 but +45 on election night, I worry about a wide array of states that don’t count in advance. He may claim an absurd victory and try to shut down the counts, cry fraud, and start a civil war.
That wasn’t Bob Russell’s campaign though, that was the dead guy in Orange County.
On the other hand, even forgetting the racism, he’s really old and her highest held office is state representative. It would be a Palin-esque pick. Obviously she’s imminently more intelligent and competent than Sarah Palin, but that would be the comparison and she’s not experienced enough to be POTUS.
Someone’s going to say, “But Trump won!” Yeah, but we’re trying to count to 70M votes on the side where people actually think about these things.
How dare you shit on Super System???
Correct, but I also think it understates Biden’s chances in a fair (by normal standards) election.
Maybe Trump is doing the impossible and finally turning out the apathetic low information voters who are just fuckign sick of him.
Another Gem:
There will be at least 15 million new voters this year. It seems highly unlikely that group is voting for Donald Trump.
I don’t want to get cocky, but if the likely voter screens on the poles are off and/or young people turn out (LOL) then that’s probably a 1-2 point swing for Biden from polling averages.
“Nobody turns out the apathetic like me. Some say I’m the best at turning out the people that hate my guts. I’m not sure about that, but some people are saying it”
