https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1316443893332955137
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I don’t think so, but I think other factors decrease the likelihood of a late-breaking blue shift (like we saw in the Sinema race).
AZ has done 75-80% vote by mail in recent elections and I assume that will be even higher this year.
Additionally, we know people in all parts of the country are anxious to vote and get it over with. We’ve already started our early in-person voting and there’s been huge turnout and long lines.
Plus people are aware of post office shenanigans and are mailing as early as possible. Registration is still open for a couple of more days (which is good!), but literally everyone I know has already voted.
It is my most fervent wish that the counting begins next Tuesday with a huge backlog, the backlog is slowly cleared by Election Day, and the race can be called on that night even as some ballots will still be arriving over the next few days.
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As much as Trump says the fake polls are just trying to make him look bad, he sees all this and knows his haggis is in the fire for sure this time. His garbage scow of a campaign is going to warp.
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we’re gonna go to NC, then we’re gonna go to Ohio, then we’re gonna go to Georgia,
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If they count the first two, I guess so.
It’s so weird to me that this is something with such a hard partisan split. I still don’t “get” it.
Trump told his cult members that mail in voting is fraud.
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I thought there have been heavy splits in previous elections, particularly early voting vs. Election Day.
It’s three things, as far as I can tell:
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Trump has poisoned his followers’ brains on mail-in voting, so Republicans are mostly voting in person on Nov. 3.
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Trump followers think COVID is no biggie, while Dems don’t particularly want to wait in line and possibly get pozzed, so Dems are voting by mail, Repubicans are voting in person on the day.
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Dems don’t want to take any fucking chances that they aren’t able to get to the polls on Nov. 3, so they are voting early. Trump followers don’t think ahead more than a few hours.
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Can’t wait to see all these Trumpers waiting in 4 hour lines on November 3rd.
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Traditionally Rs had a slight advantage with mail voting.
Seems like some quality Steiner math!
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My guess would be that R’s are more rural and dont have to wait in long lines on election day, D’s live in areas where they might have to wait 3-4 hours to vote on election day so they try to vote early
Good point. Rain typically lowers turnout, right? That risk won’t be spread evenly this time. Probably makes sense to root for bad weather on election day.
you’ve been watching too much WW
What is your point?
Every single one of those states is a must-win game over fatality for Rump.
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He may need to start scheduling 2 rallies per day.
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