In 538s forecast Wisconsin is now the tipping point state. Pennsylvania is apparently solidifying it’s dem support a little.
Me too. Seems odd. Biden is up to his eyeballs in cash.
I don’t spend much time in 22 politards any more, but have there been any AWice sightings? Who is he betting on this time around?
Recently saw a comparison on Twitter or something of Biden/Trump upcoming ad spending (including PACs), Biden’s edge isn’t as dominate as you’d think based on headlines of “Trump pulls ads in Michigan ZOMG…” There are a few states where Biden has a big edge, but they are relatively close overall and in PA/FL.
The Trump ad right now about coming back is pretty good tbh, maybe they just cut back on spending the last few weeks because they realized the “THE SUBURBS ARE GONNA GET RAPED” ads were flushing money down the toilet and needed to regroup.
my point was that even with gerrymandering, R advantage is fleeting if 1) formerly reliable areas shift to D even slightly, and 2) there is a big turnout election.
case in point, mj hegar’s 2018 house race in a district carved up specifically for a republican. suburb shift made it super close compared to 2016. in the last two years, suburbs in the district grew by 65k people (or eligible voters, i forget).
economist percentage hasn’t moved in three days, so i am shook
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Saw a new Biden ad featuring Cindy McCain basically telling Republicans it‘s okay to vote for Joe (or stay home).Usually I‘d be skeptical of that strategy but it might work in the current climate.
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Man, scrolling through Twitter comments and seeing MAGA-turds confidently saying things like, “PFFFT, look at these fake polls. How can Biden be winning? He has no Boat Parades! No Golf Cart parades! No Truck Parades!” as if those are time-honored indicators of the winner.
It kinda cracks me up, though at the same time I see visions of myself on this forum after four more years of Trump screaming “Where the fuck are Klobuchar’s Prius parades? We need to get folks out there!”
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Yea it’s insane. I know people in NJ that are absolutely convinced Trump will win the state. I think 538 has him at less than 1% LOL.
Yeah, it’s mainly on the back of that +13 from not too long ago. In other news, Biden looks more likely to win Texas than Trump to win Florida.
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Being afraid of rampant cheating isn’t all that irrational.
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I think the problem with that strategy is that if you make it too dog-whistle-y it won’t work and if you make it obvious enough for people to understand, all it takes is a few people tweeting it at Trump for him to go after you as a traitor, which will lose you more voters than the strategy gains.
No I mean they are Trump supporters that really think everyone in NJ loves him.
https://twitter.com/lindseygrahamsc/status/727604522156228608?lang=en
Maybe Lindsey was just 4 years too early.
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Oh, gotcha.
Biden is polling much better in FL than Trump is in TX. Nate’s model just bakes in an assumed reversion to traditional partisan spread by Nov 3rd. If he still had the now cast Biden likely crushes.
Texas turning blue is still unlikely this time around but could become a thing as Texas gets more urban and diverse. Although one thing that keeps me up at night is the trend of younger men of color trending more conservative than the demographic traditionally. Basically men being shitty as they get more comfortable seems to transcend race.
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… and FL police chiefs. 
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