HOLY SHIT THOSE FUCKING POLLS
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https://mobile.twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313907901300432899
Lol remember a week ago when this FL poll would have been great, and now its just meh?
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And that AZ number, while not great, is still a 1 point improvement from last month. FL is a 4 point improvement.
Apparently Qunnipiac had Nelson and Gilliam both +7 the day before the 2018 election, so not sure their polling of Florida is worth a damn.
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It’s why you look at the trend lines and not just the margin.
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It can’t be stressed enough how good we have to run to just run out the clock here without and major shakeups. These numbers are insane, but 4 weeks is a long time.
Hoooooollllllldddddddd!
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A 7 point error in trumps favor of that Quinnipiac poll means that Biden wins FL by 4.
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Two points about the 538 84/16 forecast:
- A week ago, Nate noted that he had build a “debate bounce” adjustment into the model, to smooth it out and to interpret any bounces coming out of the debate really conservatively; and
- Notwithstanding that adjustment to make the model conservative in the week after the debate, the model has swung 12 points in Biden’s favor in 1 week.
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It’s kinda funny how the republican covid denial shtick was basically all based around ‘fuck grandma’.
Well apparently grandma is pegging the shit out of ‘em.
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I feel like a political candidate once asked them to sacrifice something and it not going well. I think he wanted them to drive slower. Trump is asking them to die lololol.
10/13. I’ll be there when the polls open.
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My love of Taylor Swift has been validated again
https://twitter.com/taylorswift13/status/1313938080290803715?s=21
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…she’s like your Marlene Dietrich.
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Not gonna lie. Had to google it.
Steve Schmidt looks like he’s lost a lot of weight.
well obviously you just laugh at any Florida +11 poll, but dems can win florida, too bad there’s no rubio trying to fend off anyone right now…
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Cliffs: Trump has basically pulled out of every MIdwestern state except PA. It appears he’s all in on winning Pennsylvania, conceding he’s losing Wisconsin and Michigan, and then just hoping he miraculously wins every other state he won in 2016 (including Arizona) to still win.
It’s the right strategy. Even if Dems flip AZ he wins 269-269. But he’s buried in WI, MI and PA so we just have to keep grinding it out.
If dems flip AZ it’s only 269-269 if Trump carries both ME-2 and NE-2. If Biden takes either of those he has it. However I agree, it’s the right strategy given their current resources.