https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313458977502572544?s=20
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Definitely the “Trump will cheat if the results are not a giant landslide” message is sinking in. Even a few weeks ago my liberal friends and family were treating me like a conspiracy theorist lunatic about that stuff and now they talk openly about the risk of civil war! Say what you will about the downsides of echo chambers but this forum had been like a month ahead of trends basically all year.
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Just an assumption, but my guess is Trump doing so well with 50-64 age group is where the strong stonks are helping Trump most. These are the people closest to retirement and logging in to check their 401k at least weekly. Probably the white/male/non-college sweet spot too.
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538 currently gives Biden a better chance of winning Montana and Mississippi then it gives Trump of winning Michigan.
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Those are also the people who are susceptible to Trump’s grievance narratives. They are approaching retirement with no money, large debt, poor HC options, and basically they worked their whole careers in the post-Reagan America. All of the false promise of small government America didn’t provide them with the lifestyle they were misled to believe was coming to them, and they’re looking for someone to blame. Human nature dictates that many of them will gravitate to Trump’s BS about blaming libruls and blacks and feminists, the alternative would be to admit they were duped and that’s a hard pill to swallow.
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boooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooom
https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313494432931606533?s=20
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Yeah, that’s the sort of poll that should move the 538 model on its own. Probably just a point, maybe 2, but that’s huge for one poll.
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Under 50: Biden 54-40
50 to 64: Biden 54-45
65 Plus: Biden 55-42
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https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1313495025096044546?s=20
I saw in the article that this poll had Biden +4 the last time
Monmouth has it 54-43 in PA among likely voters.
It’s over, run out the clock.
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All he had to do was a reasonably competent job on COVID. 100,000+ could have still died, but if he just showed that he and his admin were doing everything they could and didn’t downplay things, he would have won easily.
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He didn’t even have to do a competent job, he just had to show some empathy. Had he taken the exact same actions (including the dumb statements), but talked about how bad people are hurting due to Covid and then when he got sick, talked about how he now understands how terrible it is to have Covid and worry about others you love having Covid, the media would have been happy play along and would have spent this last month heaping praise on the new-Trump.
Luckily for us, he just doesn’t care about anyone other than himself.
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The count for Biden:Trump signs in my area is legitimately >100:2. Don’t take that to the bank since it’s usually the rural voters that screw us, but MT is the most democratically energized I’ve seen us in a while. It’s a bit of a long shot, but there’s a chance we end this election with a Dem Gov, two Dem senators, and a Biden victory.
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What’s the count on Senate signs?
Guess killing grandma and grandpa for the economy hasn’t been the best strategy
Just hard to see how Trump wins with how the polling is going
I took a long bike ride through Buckhead (conservative, rich, Republican part of Atlanta) last week, and I saw 14 Biden signs to 1 Trump sign.
There were lots more Republican Senator signs (Purdue/Loeffler) but almost no Trump signs.
It seems like the Trump brand isn’t popular among the genteel types. They surely love the guy and what he is capable of doing for them, but wince at the means he uses and don’t want to directly associate themselves with it.
In the countryside of Georgia/Alabama, Trump outweighs Biden infinitely. There are literally zero Biden signs anywhere, and not that many down ballot signs unless you’re in Marjorie Taylor Greene’s district, where her signs easily outnumber Trump and are in front of a significant fraction of the houses.