Alaska, Montana, and South Carolina should be brown as well IMO.
This should probably go in the Covid thread but it seems like we are at the start of a new ramping up period for Covid also. We are seeing week over week increases in cases/deaths now for several days in a row. That would also be disastrous for Trump as his “new” strategy is basically the early March strategy of pretend it is the flu. That isn’t going to work if we head back up towards peak numbers.
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And if they were as wrong as they were in 2012 He would win over 400.
Man, who even cares about +16 nationally, +8 in FL where Trump has to win in a post-pozz pole is the real mic drop.
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I’m one of the most pessimistic people here and I’m starting to think a landslide is actually possible. There are so many possible downsides for Trump now.
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Same, but I’m going to wait at least a month before turning in my WAAF badge.
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And he’s a straight up fucking moron who we have never, ever, even accidentally seen take the optimal line. Even the stuff he’s average to perhaps above average at like PR he overweighs to the point where it drags down his decision making quality like an anchor.
I said right after the Ukraine thing broke that he was going to do some new absolutely idiotic thing at least once a month until the election, and that he probably wouldn’t get reelected but that he might do a LOT of damage in the meantime. I obviously had no goddamn idea it was going to be as bad as COVID, which somehow gave him the potential to do a 9/11 a week for months straight.
He has almost no outs if he magically turns into a totally different person and does everything perfectly from now on… and in real life he’s a sub 100 IQ with NPD and COVID. He’s entirely fucked.
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I am way more optimistic than I was a month ago, but 4 weeks is a long time for Barr and co to throw some pretty big wrenches in the free and fair election thing. I won’t feel good until it is officially called for Biden, and even then we will still have a sweat.
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Those seem less than stellar, pretty sure that’s a D-leaning poll too.
That Biden +16 means we’re drawing live to the whole race being called for Biden right at west coast poll closing.
eh 538 has change research as C-
But aren’t they like D+0.9 too?
They may he less than stellar, but if you told me a month ago that there would be polls with Biden up in every swing state I would have been ecstatic and probably been pretty skeptical. As I said above, I’m not going to feel good until this is called for Biden, but if he actually manages to win FL, PA, and some other swing states hoo boy will I be celebrating hard.
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And this is what keeps me from too much optimism. That’s way too close.
There are certainly paths for Biden without PA (most obviously AZ+ME-2), but a 270-268 result isn’t great. It really needs to be an ass-kicking or things will get bad.
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Yeah +16 Nationally is the headliner. That’s double the gap of Clinton-Dole. It would be as big of a blowout as Reagan-Mondale. I don’t think we’re actually there yet, but if more polls start to show gaps that big it would be huge!
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not sure, just saying the results arent reliable.
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